2020 UBA Preview Flipbook PDF

2020 UBA Preview

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HAL AND THE COMMISH LOOK TO REBOUND A F T E R F O R E C A S T I N G F AU X P A S I N 2 0 1 9 SO, ABOUT LAST YEAR…. —

AND, WE’RE STILL JUST THE MESSENGERS —

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THIS IS STILL A THANKLESS JOB —

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WELCOME TO THE NEW SEASON... Indeed! Changes in the game and subsequent changes in the program have moved us quickly into baseball’s new era. Reflecting that, this year we will move to 26-man rosters and raise the salary cap to $300. Composition of pitching staffs will be more important than ever as complete games become as rare as perfect games. Increasingly, starters will work once through the lineup and bullpens will

expand to 8 or 9 arms as openers become the rage. That trend is supported by the new game platform, as is the ability to deploy in a variety of defensive shift strategies. (Well, only one, really, but you get to say ‘when’). As always, I thank the owners for helping to create a one of a kind experience built on the game that we love. I’ve reposted some of my

favorite fantasy baseball articles for your enjoyment. So much of who we are is captured in those words. Good luck to all as we launch our 43rd full season in this our 53rd year of operation. And, be proud—you are part of the oldest, continuous fantasy league in the Strat world. Play Ball!!

C O N F E R E N C E S T O C K T R E N D I N G D OW N ; THE SO UT H ST ILL HAS THE TE AMS TO BE AT What a difference a year makes. After regaining some respect last year—the Eastern Conference edged the West in head-to-head contests after being blown out in 2018—the East—collectively—will take a few steps back toward mediocrity. Just a few. Well, maybe a few more. Still, the races are going to be competitive and the East has a handful of teams that will hold their own against anyone. The North: Pittsburgh’s run of consecutive division titles is going to come to a grinding halt at two, as the pitching that fueled their play-off runs in ‘18 and ‘19 evaporates. The Snells and Freelands will likely regain form, but too late to save the Alleghenys’ bacon this year. The good news is for the teams that will compete for the North crown: New York, Milwaukee and Toledo. HAL and I disagree, but as you will read, I give the Highlanders the edge in this race. They rode a wild card berth to the finals last season. They have Freeman, Altuve and now Scherzer. If they are to be denied the top spot, it will be Milwaukee that does it. The Stars have slowly been building a winner and while even better seasons lie ahead, they should at least take one of the wild card slots. Their pitching—unlike Pittsburgh’s—is just too good. And, then there are the Mud Hens. You cannot count them out. Their lineup has a bit more pop than either the Highlanders or the Stars, but in the end, I fear their pitching will bring them up just a game or two short. Curious to see how this will play out. The Atlantic: This division used to be one of the most competitive in the UBA. This year HAL ranks it as the weakest. But, while it might prove to be a long year for

Baltimore and Richmond, there is still a good race in the offing. HAL and I both agree that the re-tooled Washington Federals are going to take this division. But HAL’s analytics mask the lack of depth in Atlanta— who the computer believes will vie for the upper berth— while I think that Jacksonville will be the Fed’s chief— no pun intended—antagonist. The ‘Bolts always seem to find a way to hang around in a fight. It will be a year of rebuilding in Richmond and Baltimore, though the Nightmares’ pitching should allow them to fare a little better than the Rats. The South: The battle for supremacy in the East may be settled here, as its two highest ranked teams square off. Memphis is back with a vengeance, with the best lineup this side of San Antonio and New Orleans is right behind them. The Blues’ have the better pitching, but not by much. Which means that this is shaping up to be a pennant race of biblical proportions, with baseballs rocketing out of parks all around the conference. The Marlins of Miami are the best of the also-rans, but like Louisville and Tallahassee behind them, do not have the bats or the arms to last for too long in a division that has lately been highly competitive from top to bottom. In the end, I will nervously agree with HAL that New Orleans will be the last team standing in the East. But, do not be surprised—I won’t be—if the Marauders’ juggernaut blasts its way into the finals. Unless, of course, New York pulls off another New York.

BREAKING DOWN THE CONFERENCE HOW

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COMMISH SEES ‘EM....

North:

Atlantic:

South:

New York…........................p. 4 Milwaukee...…..................p. 5 Toledo ..............................p. 6 Pittsburgh ........................p. 7 Buffalo ……….....................p. 8

Washington.…..................p. 10 Jacksonville......................p. 11 Atlanta……………...............p. 12 Baltimore.…..…................p. 13 Richmond……..................p. 14

New Orleans …….............p. 17 Memphis….…...................p. 18 Miami……..….….……..…….p. 19 Louisville….……................p. 20 Tallahassee……................p. 21

P age 4

Volume 1, Issue 42

NORTHERN DIVISION—1ST

N O R T H

As a wild card team in 2019, the Highlanders parlayed their veteran experience into a ticket to the UBA Championship series. With the addition of veterans Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Max Scherzer, New York is primed for a run at the division title. Lineup: Not the Highlanders strong suit—there are some holes—but you won’t find a much more productive twosome anywhere than former MVP Jose Altuve (2B), and perennial MVP candidate, first baseman Freddie Freeman. If they are on their game, they can carry this club for weeks. There will be times when they might have to. Still the supporting cast does have some solid performers. Nick Markakis (RF) and shortstop Miguel Rojas— finally getting the chance to play everyday— will prove adept at getting on base for the big bats, and Evan Longoria (3B), Jackie Bradley, Jr. (CF), and left-fielder Jurickson Profar will chip in the more than occasional long ball. Longoria and Bradley will also bring the leather at third and in center. Outfielders Robbie Grossman and Tyler O’Neill, and infielders Ian Kinsler and Erik Gonzalez lead an adequate bench. Where the Highlanders will be looking for answers is behind the plate, where free agent Welington Castillo and Grayson Greiner will combine to contribute decent numbers, but Castillo as the #1 is worrisome both at and behind the plate. Still, the lineup should produce in a pitching-thin North. Rotation: The trade that brought Ian Kinsler’s veteran presence—and bloated salary—to the Highlanders also brought the player that I think cements New York’s chances to win the North. Max Scherzer

brings his grit and guile—and more importantly, his team-friendly final two years of a contract—to anchor the Highlander rotation. The stopper’s stopper, Scherzer-teamed with #2 Michael Pineda and #3 Brad Keller— gives New York a threesome that can almost match rival Milwaukee’s best. Though, they don’t have a Scherzer. Demoted to #4, Jon Lester will struggle mightily at times, but the veteran knows how to win, and will not disappoint. Aaron Sanchez rounds out the starting five, a shadow of the rookie sensation he once was. Talented rookie Griffin Canning—starting the year in Albany—will also get some starts, especially with suspension looming for Pineda at some point. Bullpen: This is the strong suit. The Highlanders have three bona fide closers in Kenley Jansen, Carlos Martinez and Luke Jackson, though the backend job should be Jansen’s to lose. So much the better. Throw in the incomparable Adam Ottavino, lefty Jarlin Garcia, and lights out rookie Jacob Webb, and suddenly you are talking about five talented arms to match to any scenario the Highlanders might face on the way to the closer. Whatever you throw at them, this bullpen will have an answer. Veteran Jake Diekman is the remaining guy on the bench, and though he walks a few too many, he keeps the ball in the park and opposing hitters will have to work to hit .200 against him. The ingredients are there. Look for New York to enter October as the North’s champion. HAL: 2nd Place; #16 overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

NORTHERN DIVISION—2ND—WC

N O R T H

The Stars slipped last year after making the play-offs in 2018 for the first time since 2007. This year’s club is that proverbial mix of rising stars and productive veterans. It won’t be easy, but look for Milwaukee to return to the spotlight in October as the second wild card in the East. Lineup: Though dismissed by HAL—the Stars slot in at #23 in HAL’s analysis—there are still some good pieces here, especially the young nucleus. That nucleus, rookie outfielder Bryan Reynolds; and leftfielder Willie Calhoun and third baseman J.D. Davis— finally getting a crack at the s t a r t i n g lineup—will be the major producers this season and the mainstays of the Stars lineup for the foreseeable future. Though at age 26, shortstop Dansby Swanson is hardly a greybeard, he is part of the cast of solid veteran sticks surrounding the youth corps, which includes outfielders Adam Jones and Steve Piscotty; utilityman Marwin Gonzalez; catcher Brian McCann; and, the ageless wonder, Albert Pujols (1B). Joey Wendle and another rookie, Shed Long will share duties at second base, while Danny Jansen will backup McCann behind the plate. I like the mix, but in truth, the Stars will not overpower many opponents, and there will be stretches when runs will be hard to come by. But, in the long run, runs may not be all that important. Rotation: For though the batting order may suffer through some dry spells, the pitching staff—ranked #4 overall by HAL and coming in at #1 in the East— will be the model of consistency. If it’s true that

teams will go as far as their pitching will take them, then the trio of Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez and Lance Lynn—yes, Lance Lynn—could take the Stars pretty far. True, they don’t have a Scherzer, but in a three game series, the stats would favor Milwaukee over New York’s finest. Fourth starter Michael Foltynewicz will battle with elbow issues but still be effective when available. When he is not, flashy rookie Randy Dobnak is close by in Madison. And, at last word, it looks as if Chi Chi Gonzalez will get first crack at the #5 slot over Dillon Peters. Either would be a welcome break for enemy hitters from the big arms. Bullpen: Starting at the back-end, Hansel Robles will inherit the ninth inning chores for a solid relief corps, set up by Tyler Clippard and Brandon Kintzler, both of whom could close in a pinch. What’s not to like about that? Adam Kolarek, Richard Rodriguez and Ty Buttrey will prove to be more than adequate at snuffing rallies as those middle innings melt into the final frames; and, former starter Matt Andriese, and former Shark, Adam Cimber, will be on hand if things get out of hand early. Which means, that they will spend most of their time watching for vendors and creating their own amusements. The Stars will make the play-offs, but as will be the case with every win they record, their opponents will wonder how they did it? HAL: 1st Place; #13 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

P age 6

NORTHERN DIVISION—3RD

N O R T H

Last season the Mud Hens finished over .500 for the first time since 2011 and fell just six games short of a play-off berth. While the bats could take them into the play-offs, the arms could leave them right back in third, just shy of the promised land. Still, consider them a dark horse for the division title. Lineup: One thing is for sure. On any given night, the ‘Hens can put a hurt on you. For proof, look no further than one of the best infields in baseball. At the corners, first baseman Jose Abreu and third sacker Eduardo Escobar will hit a lot of homers and drive in a ridiculous bunch of runs. At the keystone, rookie Cavan Biggio will impress at the plate as he settles in at second base—spelled by veteran Neil Walker— while the proverbial straw that stirs the drink— shortstop Francisco Lindor—will lead with his bat and his glove. The outfield is more of a mixed bag. The Hens had to spend some money to bring in Kole Calhoun and Hunter Pence. The former will bring some pop and the latter even more, when he is healthy enough to play. Which means that Steve Wilkerson and Juan Lagares will get more at bats than they should. Rookie Seth Brown will look flashy in a limited role. Behind the dish, Martin Maldonado will do most of the heavy lifting, while the ageless Russell Martin will stand by as one of baseball’s best back-up backstops. Rotation: Truth be told, the ’Hens pitching is better than you might think. It will have to be to keep pace with the Stars and Highlanders. But, there are some lingering questions and they lie mostly with the rota-

tion. For starters, there is not a true ace. There are three very good #2’s, however. Why, Anibal Sanchez, Brett Anderson and Kenta Maeda could easily slot in at #2 on most teams. #3 at the least. And, for the most part they should be quite effective. The first question comes in the form of Rick Porcello, who tested the free agent market only to come back to Toledo. Porcello has devolved into a starter who will be either adequate or awful I’d prepare for the worst. Rookie Shaun Anderson will get most of the starts from the #5 slot, with Freddy Peralta taking the balance. Neither is a great option. The offense better be good. Bullpen: Shane Greene finally will arrive as the closer the ‘Hens knew he could be. And Yusmeiro Petit, Nick Wittgren and Oliver Drake will be consistently good in getting the ball to him in the ninth. The second tier includes the durable—though not electrifying—Luis Garcia and what ever stuff Dan Otero and Juan Minaya might have left in their tanks. Spot starter Freddy Peralta will get the long relief nod, but he’s not a great option in this role, either. Still, a serviceable group of arms and if the ‘Hens are leading late, that lead should be safe. I’m hedging my bet by calling them the dark horse in the North, but I do think they have a shot. And, if I am wrong about how the pitching storyline will play out, then the ‘Hens just might make their first playoff appearance in a decade. Wake me up when September ends. HAL: 3rd Place ; #18 overall

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P age 7

Volume 1, Issue 42

NORTHERN DIVISION—4TH

N O R T H

What a difference a year will make. Rendon departing is one thing. More devastating for Pittsburgh is the dissolution of the starting pitching—the strength of their division winning squads in ‘18 and ‘19— which will take a collective nosedive. After two seasons as the dominant force in the Conference, the Alleghenys will experience once again what it’s like to be on the outside looking in. Lineup: Anthony Rendon has indeed gone off to play for the highest bidder in Atlanta, and though that creates a void in the lineup, there is another infielder ready to step up. This is the year that shortstop Marcus Semien delivers big time on the potential that made Pitt trade for him five years ago. Add to Semien’s numbers those that will be generated by Pitt’s amazing second sacker Whit Merrifield, catcher Christian Vazquez—and to a lesser extent, the contributions of the regenerating first baseman, Eric Hosmer—and you have the makings of a pretty solid heart of the order. But, it’s off the proverbial cliff at that point. The outfield is terribly thin. That Chad Pinder will be the big bat out there tells you all you need to know, as Ender Inciarte and Brandon Nimmo are hampered by injuries, rookies Bubba Starling and Sam Hilliard misfire, and Carlos Gonzalez plays like a man who should have already retired. The third base platoon of Pablo Sandoval and rookie Mike Brousseau will have their moments, but not enough of them. Back-up catcher Sandy Leon will provide excellent defense but not help the production. Even super tenth man John Hicks will struggle.

Rotation: It’s sobering to see the Pitt mound corps fall from #4 to #27 in Hal’s ranking scheme. The starting rotation is the primary culprit. Blake Snell— who will still be the most effective arm at #1—will be slowed by injury and his numbers will reflect that. Rookie Jordan Yamamoto will show flashes of brilliance, but is not ready for the grind of a full season. Kyle Freeland will bear absolutely no resemblance to the guy who last season posted that 2.74 ERA over 32 starts nor will Nick Pivetta come close to duplicating his 2019 breakout campaign. Glenn Sparkman—who in any other year would be on the farm—will slot in somewhere only because he can provide Pitt with the thing they need most: Innings. There will be some relief when rookie Austin Voth brings his big arm up from Altoona for a few starts here and there. But this will be frustrating. Bullpen: There will be some relief here, too, but not enough to staunch the bleeding of the rotation. There is also no true closer in this pen, and though Joakim Soria and Wander Suero are the leading candidates to claim it or even share that role, the good news is that it may not be needed too often. Apart from the closer candidates, Giovanney Gallegos, Tyler Webb and Evan Marshall are the best arms in the pen. Noe Ramirez will also be effective and he will be able to open a game or two—more relief. This will be a hard year to watch, but Pitt has had a taste of success the past two seasons and is hungry for more. HAL: 5th Place; #26 Overall

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P age 8

Volume 1, Issue 42

NORTHERN DIVISION—5TH

N O R T H

With an improved offense and an evolving pitching staff—well, it got a whole lot younger, at least—things are beginning to trend in the right direction for the Bisons. Heck, they might even give the Allghenys a run for their money in the battle to escape the basement. Failing that, Buffalo can still look forward to the that next game-changing draft pick. Lineup: Speaking of which, this is the year that Ronald Acuna makes Nate Brewster look like a genius for selecting him with the first pick in 2019. The reigning Rookie-of-the Year will hit, hit for power—I predict he’ll hit more homeruns than the Pittsburgh outfield— steal bases, and all while playing above-average defense in left with a big arm to boot. The Bisons are hoping that this year’s first round pick—shortstop Bo Bichette—will follow suit. Those two high-profile players will combine with another youngster—3B Kevin Newman—to give Buffalo a nucleus that they can build on for the next few years. Harrison Bader (CF), J.P. Crawford (SS) and Luke Voit (1B) are also part of that youth movement, and Voit in particular will make his presence known in this lineup, putting on some power displays of his own. Veterans Cesar Hernandez (2B) , fourth outfielder Tyler Naquin and Jason Heyward (RF) will put up solid if not flashy numbers, while the owner’s favorite son—and the god of utility players-Brock Holt, will be an on-demand hitting-machine. The Bisons brought back catcher Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year deal, a decision they will not regret. HAL rates the Bisons as having the 14th best offense. Modest, but opponents will be

wise to not take them too lightly. Rotation: They aren’t going to miss Bartolo Colon. Well, they might on those days when Dylan Covey has to pitch, but I mean overall. The default #1 is free agent Julio Teheran, who may find that pitching without a DH—or against some of the more punishing Western lineups—helps his numbers. Eric Lauer will continue his development at #2, and, after him it becomes apparent as to why HAL posits the staff at #25. In some order, recycled left-hander Martin Perez, rookies Dario Agrazal and Taylor Clarke, and—let’s hope not too often—Dylan Covey and Ty Blach—will take turns creating deficits for the young bats to overcome. The rookies will fare the best of this collection, but Bisons’ fans should fear the worst when Teheran and Lauer have completed their turns. Bullpen: A little good news: some serious arms are out here, and none more so than the two attached to Liam Hendriks and Zack Britton. If the Bisons can bring a lead to the late innings, there is a good chance they will keep it. Amir Garrett, Blaine Hardy and Josh James, and on those special occasions, A. J. Cole, will do a respectable job of fronting the lateinning guys. Rookie Taylor Guilbeau will turn in good numbers as long as he is not overexposed. James Loaisiga also returns as another option for the rotation if the rookies need to regroup. And, we will all miss the thrill-a-minute J.T. Chargois, but such is life. It’ll be fun in any event as the Bisons map out their way back to the top of the division. HAL: 4th Place; #22 overall

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42

ATLANTIC DIVISION—1ST

A T L A N T I C

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New ownership has started a rebuild on the fly. The influx of new talent—from Michael Brantley to rookie Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.—has thrust the Feds into the driver’s seat in the Atlantic race. And, they may be just good enough to put a scare into the big boys in the conference come October. Lineup: Not the lineup that scored a UBA-low 590 runs last season, that’s for sure. HAL’s 8th ranked offense has the right mix of power, patience and speed—and some guys who can just flat out hit. In the outfield, home-grown Scott Kingery and Trey Mancini—acquired in a trade with Phoenix last year— are joined by free agent Yasiel Puig and Michael Brantley—acquired in a salary-dump trade with Jacksonville. Finding at -bats for all of them might be a challenge, but expect Mancini to get some licks in at first where he will spell Joey Votto, who apparently is not ageless. Across the diamond, highly-touted rookie Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. will get most of the starts, while the double-play combination of Jeff McNeil at second and Tim Anderson at short might just battle each other for the league batting title, unless Mr. Brantley has other ideas. Salvador Perez may be lost for the season, but Pedro Severino will get high marks for his attempts to replace some of Perez’ production, while Willians Austudillo provides a steady bat as the reserve. Donovan Solano—acquired through the Rule V Draft—and Cheslor Cuthbert will be solid contributors off the bench. Surpassing last season’s run production should not be a problem Rotation: Zach Davies is back, and Ryu and Bumgarner have arrived. Apparently, the Feds are taking

this seriously. But, those three in tandem will give the Feds all they need once October arrives. But, let’s not get too far ahead of the game. As good as the top three are going to be—and Ryu is going to be sensational in his triumphant return to the Eastern Conference—Washington does have three other starters on the roster who form a collective risk, though, as the Feds are calculating, perhaps not one for which the bats cannot compensate, or the weaker opposition in this division can exploit. Regardless of the scenario, Kevin Gausman, Jhoulys Chacin and the disabled Carlos Carrasco will congeal around the final two slots. Not a fatal wound, perhaps, but it bears watching. Bullpen: OK, this could be a problem, too. Matt Magill is the default closer at press time—and, not a dependable kind of default guy, either—and, outside of free agent Josh Tomlin and Felix Pena—who may get a start here and there—the Feds pen has a serious shortage of shut down arms. Collectively, Ryan Tepera, Wade LeBlanc, Robbie Erlin and Chad Sobotka will throw gasoline on more fires than they extinguish, which as the race drags on could become a critical factor. The offense is very, very good, and so are the core starters, but the lack of depth on the mound may just bring about a season -ending recession for the Fed. But, hey, the Atlantic is a forgiving division. As configured, I still think the Feds take the prize. HAL: 1st Place; #9 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

ATLANTIC DIVISION—2ND

A T L A N T I C

HAL picks Jacksonville to dial it in this year, settling for a third place finish. Given the strength of the starting rotation and the fact that the ‘Bolts have done more with less in the past, I will at least give them second and trust the rest to the baseball gods. Lineup: Admittedly, there are some issues here—not the least of which will be the first base platoon of Chris Davis and Jesus Aguilar—but we’ll get to that. Starting with the outfield, the ‘Bolts will most often deploy with the mixed-bag bats of Avisail Garcia—free agent defector from Denver—in right; Hunter Renfroe—bringing brute power and not much else from Vancouver—in left; and, the defensive stylings of centerfielder Albert Almora. Austin Slater and Joey Rickard will see some action as backups. So far, nothing an average pitching staff would lose too much sleep over. Beyond the aforementioned lightweight tandem at first, the starting infield consists of the capable platoon of Tommy LaStella and rookie Ty France at second, the incomparable Trea Turner at short, and journeyman wannabe Maikel Franco at third. Since you can pitch around Turner, we’re still sleeping soundly. Behind the dish—and for the next four years—is the Bolts’ other serious offensive threat, Yasmani Grandal, who if nothing else, will give pitchers pause about pitching around Trea Turner. For the record, Jesus Aguilar should get most of the starts at first base, but opponents will still get their chances to help Chris Davis make up his mind about retirement. Overall, an offense on HAL’s back nine. This is not Jacksonville’s calling card. Rotation: Wherever the Firebolts do actually finish, it will be a direct reflection upon the work of the

starting pitchers who I think—overall—are good enough to work with whatever the batters give them and may prove to be about the deepest rotation, one-to-six, in the conference. From the top, Luis Castillo, Kyle Hendricks and James Paxton, and fourth starter, Tanner Roark, can match up with any team in the East. (Castillo, Hendricks and Paxton have a combined WHIP of 1.17. Any questions?) The fifth slot will be shared by Tyler Chatwood—who can also close when called upon—and rookie Devin Smeltzer, both of whom should post sub-4 ERAs. Minimal run support may be a minimized problem for this squad. Bullpen: If nothing else, JAX fans won’t have Wade Davis to kick around anymore, unless he is recalled from Daytona. That could happen if the ‘Bolts’ closing tandem of Roenis Elias and Edwin Diaz stumble too badly—not—but that unlikely pairing will be volatile at times. Austin Brice, Nick Vincent and Kyle Crick will be the other main contributors in a rather pedestrian bull pen. Wei-Yin Chen will try to reinvent himself as a reliever, perhaps as a leftyspecialist, but will look a lot like Wade Davis in the attempt. There is not a lot of depth on the farm, so the starting rotation best be as good as I think it is. While I don’t believe that the Firebolts represent a viable threat to the Feds, I do think that they easily rise above the rest of the competition in the Atlantic. That it is a down year for the Conference in general can only help. HAL: 3rd Place, #21 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

ATLANTIC DIVISION—3RD

A T L A N T I C

And here is where I think that HAL has overreached. The Chiefs are on the right path after a lack-luster 2019, but even after adding the top-ranked free agent and the class of the rookie pitching class, second place may be a bit of a stretch. Still, I like the make-up of the roster and the attitude of the new ownership group. Good times are coming. Lineup: If nothing else, third baseman Anthony Rendon is going to leave his mark on the division race, putting up MVP-worthy numbers for his new club. Everything will turn, though, on his supporting cast, which while certainly talented, does not have much versatility or speed, or most importantly, the depth that this 162-game marathon will require. Eric Sogard (2B) and shortstop Andrelton Simmons are primed and ready at the top of the order. Joining Rendon in the middle will be some combination of slugging catcher Mitch Garver, rookie Mike Yastrmzemski (LF), right fielder Teoscar Hernandez and the first base platoon of Ji-Man Choi and David Freese, On the whole, a decent pool of hitters. I’ll give center-fielder Leonys Martin high marks for his defense. But, only Rendon has the pedigree for playing a full season, and Choi and Hernandez may be the only other regulars to exceed 400 at bats. A bench led by Jace Peterson, Guillermo Hermedia and Austin Allen is not going to cut it if called on for long stretches, which they will be at times. When all of the starters are healthy, the Chiefs are a force to be reckoned with. But, that will be the exception I fear, and not the rule. Rotation: Better than you might think at first glance,

but there is trouble ahead for the mound corps. Let’s start with the best news. Top draft pick Chris Paddack will instantly become the ace of the staff— not a knock on the other guys, just a statement of statistical fact. Paddack is that good and he will show just how good starting with the first time he takes the mound. Relegated to second banana, Mike Fiers will not pitch like one, giving the Chiefs a formidable one-two punch. The only knock on #3 Matt Boyd—who will average more than a strikeout per inning—is that he will also average more than one homerun per start. Trevor Richards will be steady, not flashy, but will struggle with control at times. And, the loss of Tyler Skaggs will leave the Chiefs no comparable arm to replace him, as David Hess seems the heir apparent to that slot. A double tragedy. Bullpen: A bigger issue, what you might call a Workman in progress. Actually, Brandon Workman has earned the closer’s job in Atlanta and should be a great one. Free agent resignee Sergio Romo should also rebound to take the 8th inning chores and also close when needed. The other free agent in the pen—Jared Hughes—will be worth the money spent. Dylan Floro is the best of the rest who will be called on to keep it close. T.J. McFarland, Brett Martin and rookie Travis Lakins round out the group that will head north to open the season. Again, I like this club. I just don’t think that they are built for the long haul and will fade around July. HAL: 2nd Place (WC); #10 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

ATLANTIC DIVISION—4TH

A T L A N T I C

As is the case in Pittsburgh, the mighty will fall hard. Due to a number of factors—but most related to lack of cap space and high picks—the Nightmares are going to join the Alleghenys as another Eastern team making a dramatic exit from the post-season picture. Lineup: Nowhere is that descent more obvious than with the position players. A year ago, Baltimore entered the season ranked #8 in offensive production. This year, HAL claims that only San Francisco will have a weaker presence at the plate, and the Sharks are trying to tank. Ouch! While Starling Marte (CF) and Jose Ramirez (3B) will still be productive, their totals will lag considerably. That will be due in part to the meager production coming from first baseman Brandon Belt and shortstop Brandon Crawford. (Hmmmm… Brandon...I see a pattern) And, while their numbers fall off the table, that of Steve Pearce—figuratively—and Starlin Castro—literally, since he took the coward’s way out and filed for free agency—will disappear. It’s not quite the same script behind the plate, where the catching tandem of Curt Casali—one of last season’s most pleasant surprises—and Tony Wolters will soldier on. Though there will be a noticeable downturn in power—in Wolter’s case—and average—for Casali—the net effect may still work out. New arrivals—second baseman Joe Panik and free agent left-fielder Melky Cabrera—will add some needed depth, but not much else. On the plus side, Kevin Pillar (RF) will step up and should have one of his best power and production years. Rotation: Oddly enough, the Nightmares’ pitching staff is statistically not too far removed from where

ightmares they were at the start of 2019—numbered among the mediocre. But since the lineup isn’t coming to the rescue this year, the weaknesses in the staff will be exposed as the snowball effect sets in. Credit to the front office: given the payroll constraints, the ‘Mares were still able to add to arms to the rotation—Wade Miley and Ivan Nova. Not all-star material, perhaps, but dependable, and they’ll eat innings, something that was an issue for Baltimore last year. Behind them will come struggling veteran Jake Arrieta, whose big contract expires this season, perhaps just in time; Ryan Yarbrough— last year’s rookie sensation and arguably the most talented of the bunch—and re-tread Tommy Milone, who will run hot and cold, but the ‘Mares have no where else to turn. Bullpen: The torch passed quickly. Last season’s other rookie sensation—Seranthony Dominguez –w ill be forced from the closer role due to injury, but the ‘Mares have a back-up plan and a great one at that. Hector Neris will excel as the 9th inning guy, as will his set-up man, Seth Lugo, moving from his role as a starter in 2019. Cory Gearrin, Ryan Brasier and Randy Rosario also return and should succeed more often than they fail, but barely. Former free agent Shawn Kelley and Luis Avilan will not begin to resemble the firemen that they were during Baltimore’s historic 2019 run. It’ll be rough, but with a good draft and some cap space, 2020 will fade like any other bad dream. HAL: 4th Place; #28 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

ATLANTIC DIVISION—5TH

A T L A N T I C

HAL and I both agree that the Rats will finish last, but in the Atlantic, I am not sure what that means anymore. One thing might be sure, with a plethora of older veterans still hanging around, the Rats still face what could be a daunting rebuild next season. Lineup: There is one bright spot, however—rookie catcher Will Smith. If you were going to build your new lineup around one player, this could be the guy. His playing time will be limited, but his impact will be undeniable. Well, so much for the good news, because with few exceptions, the rest of the Rat bats will have seen better days. One exception will be free agent outfielder Cameron Maybin, who like Smith will not be an everyday player, but who like Smith, will be missed when he is not in the lineup. The rest of the outfield will be pretty much missed even when they are in the lineup. Centerfielder Manuel Margot seems to be regressing each season and while leftfielder Gerardo Parra may show some signs of his age, Justin Upton will be a shell of his former self. Things do not get much better in the infield. At the corners, Kyle Seager (3B) and Yonder Alonso (1B) will suffer through sub-par seasons and while the veteran duo sharing the second base chores—Brian Dozier and Robinson Cano—will supply some occasional highlights, it is a good bet that one of them will not be there at the deadline, as the Rats will look to supplement their ‘21 picks. Nick Ahmed will be another bright spot, though more for his stellar defense than his bat, which has never reached its potential. Starting catcher Austin Hedges will flirt with power-hitter status, but his average will be abysmal.

Rotation: HAL deems this the worst staff in the East. I think he’s just piling on. Anthony Desclafani has the best stuff of any of the starters and as the #1 will post decent numbers. Fans will look forward to his turn. Mike Leake will also provide some consistency as the next man up in the rotation. And, while it’s only a slight drop off in talent to Danny Duffy, the lefty will be lucky to take the ball for most of his starts. That rookie Trent Thorton still has a lot to learn will become obvious early on, and Felix Hernandez will try to prove that he still has something left in the tank at the back end of the rotation. He doesn’t. Not as bad as HAL lets on, but not a rotation that can work with just a few runs, Bullpen: This unit is also a little better than you think and that’s largely due to the heroics of the back-end. Not so much Greg Holland, who will find ways to blow saves without giving up too many hits, but the combination of stingy arms that will light the way to the circus that will be the ninth inning. Yimi Garcia, Sam Dyson, Nick Anderson, and even Trevor Gott, will keep people off base and will consistently miss bats. Unlike the starting rotation, this is a squad that can make do with a few runs. In close games, they could be the difference, depending on which Greg Holland shows up. Jorge Lopez will provide long relief and will get the occasional start—he fits the profile—while Chris Devenski will suffer through his worst season ever. Ironically, it will be the Year of the Rat everywhere but in Richmond. HAL: 5th Place, #29 Overall

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Robert Coover’s oft-forgotten 1968 baseball novel, The Universal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Prop., opens in the middle of a game: “Bottom half of the seventh, Brock’s boy had made it through another inning unscratched, one! two! three! Twenty-one down and just six outs to go!” Brock is Brock Rutherford, retired star pitcher, and Brock’s “boy” is his son, the rookie pitcher Damon Rutherford. But Brock doesn’t exist, Damon doesn’t exist, and the game isn’t real. It’s being played out with dice and a pencil by Coover’s protagonist, Henry Waugh, alone in his kitchen. The Universal Baseball Association is a novel about fantasy baseball, though the word “fantasy” never once appears in the book. When literary people talk about Coover, who is eightyfive, they talk about him as a postmodernist and a master of metafiction. He’s known chiefly for his short stories or for his 1977 novel about Richard Nixon, The Public Burning. But in 2011, Overlook Press reissued The Universal Baseball Association in paperback, and the book is more relevant now than ever before. Fantasy sports have become a fifteen billion dollar business in America, led by fantasy football. For the uninitiated: fantasy players “draft” a roster of real-life athletes and earn points based on how they perform in their real games each week; usually there is money to be won if your team wins. The pastime has spawned websites and mobile apps so that players can compulsively check their rosters; television shows, radio shows, and podcasts on which fantasy experts give analysis and advice; and even live fantasy “lounges” inside NFL stadiums where players can congregate to play on their phones. Does it all sound exhausting? In Coover’s novel, it’s exhausting, too, but Henry welcomes it. His game is all-consuming, and he is happy to be consumed. His game is cleaner and purer than the real-life industry that now bombards us with internet ads and in-stadium signage at every sports arena. Henry’s game isn’t about money—in fact, it’s a financial drain on him rather than a source of income. His obsession with the game he creates costs him his job and, arguably, his sanity.

Although football is the prime moneymaker today, fantasy sports began with baseball. There is some dispute over who exactly can be credited with having “created” fantasy baseball. Baseball Prospectus gives the honor to William Gamson, who founded the Baseball Seminar in 1960, an auction format in which participants had imaginary budgets to spend on a roster of real-life players, and points accrued based on real-life game stats. Others trace the start of fantasy baseball to StratO-Matic, created by Hal Richman in 1961, a tabletop board game with a card representing every real-life pro. (I played it myself in 1997 at a summer camp in Maine, huddled around a twin bed with my bunkmates; it still exists today, for fifty dollars on the company’s website.) In Strat, as we called it, players draft their roster, collecting the cards for each player; during a game, you roll three dice for an at-bat and check the results (a single, a strikeout, a pop-up, et cetera.) based on stats on each card. That’s essentially how Henry Waugh plays his game, too. But in Henry’s version, three consecutive rolls of triple snake eyes (that is: nine ones) carries a shocking outcome: a freak death of the batter from a ball to the head. Damon Rutherford, Henry’s most cherished player, is killed on page eighty-two. (Damon’s death is given away in the back cover synopsis, so this isn’t really a spoiler.) The fantasy tragedy was based on a rule Henry wrote on his “Extraordinary Occurrences Chart,” which, “was the only chart Henry still hadn’t memorized” after fifty-six seasons of the UBA because he consulted it so rarely. The magic (and horror) of Coover’s novel is in how deeply Henry’s game envelops him. After the dreaded three ones come up for a third roll in a row, killing Damon, we first get a reaction from the fans in the stadium, not the puppet master: “No one moved. All stared at home plate. Damon lay there, on his back … Brock sat. Head reared in shock and his face was drawn. He looked suddenly gray and old. He rose.”

The very next line reads, “He stepped back until he came up against the stove.” Now the “he” is Henry again, but with no warning or transition. This is another characteristic of the novel, and one that becomes more frequent as Henry loses his grip—the narrative jitters between the game and Henry’s real life, often in one sentence, without any signposts. (That technique, of course, is very Robert Coover.) Henry doesn’t just imagine the players in the game. He imagines the players’ wives, the fans of each team, the bartenders at the bars where the players drink.

The game extends well beyond its imagined world. Henry is living in the game at every moment—not just as its creator and as every team’s owner but as the players themselves. He is Damon, he is Brock, he is every player and every UBA spectator. It’s the same for Bill Gray, the protagonist of Don DeLillo’s 1991 novel Mao II, who recalls, “When I was a kid, I used to announce ball games to myself. I sat in a room and made up the games and described the play-by-play out loud. I was the players, the announcer, the crowd, the listening audience and the radio. There hasn’t been a moment since those days when I’ve felt nearly so good.” And isn’t that the true purpose of fantasy sports—to bring you closer to the game, as close as possible without playing it on the field? When a fantasy player checks his or her lineup and sees that they’ve earned ten points because David Ortiz hit a homer, isn’t it like they, standing there holding their phone, hit it too? These days, people play fantasy sports mostly for the money there is to be won. But were it only about money, one could also simply gamble on the outcome of games. So there has to be another appeal of fantasy, a more intrinsic one. The likeliest motive is bragging rights with your friends. You, a regular person who isn’t a professional athlete, can’t actually go out there on the field and throw a sixty-yard touchdown pass or hit a triple off a major-league pitcher. But what you can do is predict which players will do that each week, and then, when they do, crow that you’ve proven your knowledge and expertise by picking the right roster. And in the process, you’ve also done something else: you’ve approximated, as best as possible, participating in the game. Maybe you’re on the couch, out of shape

and swilling beer, but when your top draft pick mashes a home run, you feel like you have, too. Henry’s fake baseball world and those early fantasysports board games elicited that pure exuberance far better than today’s money-focused smartphone contests. Inevitably, Coover brings Henry too far in his pleasure, turning his fantasy into a cautionary tale. In one defining scene early on in the novel, after Damon Rutherford pitches a no-hitter (this is before his death), Henry sits at his local bar and imagines the UBA players going out to celebrate at Jake’s, their favorite bar. He imagines the players shouting in joy, “Let’s go to Jake’s!” But a prostitute named Hettie overhears Henry and asks, “Where?” (There is no Jake’s.) Now we shift out of Henry’s reverie and back to real life: “She was pretty far along. So was he. Didn’t realize he had been talking out loud.” He invites her to leave with him; they’ve done this before. On the walk to his apartment, she sticks her hand through a slit in his raincoat pocket, and asks him what he does for a living. He answers, “Now, or when we get to my place?” It’s a spooky line. He’s an accountant, and tells her that, but then he says, “I’m an auditor for a baseball association.” As they walk home, with her hand down his pants, we get a string of campy double entendres in baseball terms: “She was trying to get her other hand on the bat, girl can’t take a healthy swing without a decent grip, after all, but she couldn’t get both hands through the slit.” And suddenly we’re back in Henry’s fantasy realm: “Hettie Irden stood at the plate, first woman ballplayer in league history, tightening and relaxing her grip on the bat … and maybe she wasn’t the best hitter in the Association, but the Association was glad to have her.” Now she’s become part of the game, too, unknowingly—until Henry eventually makes her a request that the reader, also fully submerged in the game, knew was coming, as she unbuckles his pants: “Call me Damon.”

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Volume 1, Issue 42

SOUTHERN DIVISION—1ST

S O U T H

I believe that half the players in the UBA have at some point worn a Blues uniform. The current mix of players—a lot of new arms—is not as deep as other New Orleans’ clubs, but they still are going to be one of the teams to beat. And, while I’m always skeptical about its rankings, HAL puts New Orleans in a virtual tie with Memphis as the East’s premier team But, since Memphis doesn’t have a Patrick Corbin... Lineup: The batting order may not be as potent as last year’s version—and the Blues better hope that nobody heads to the IL for an extended stay—but it is still ranked in the top five. The tour begins in the middle infield, where the reigning MVP—and threat to make it two awards in a row—shortstop Trevor Story, and another MVP contender, D.J. LeMahieu (2B), will be the main cogs in the Blues’ runs machine. At the corners, third baseman Matt Chapman and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, will mash at will, and with their keystone mates will form baseball’s best defensive infield as well as its most powerful. The starting outfield has two other bashers in Michael Conforto and Joc Pederson, and doubles machine, Andrew Benintendi. On occasion, rookie Derek Fisher will get to trot out to centerfield when one of the big boys needs a rest. Tucker Barnhart—backed by Kevan Smith—is the starting backstop, and will officially qualify as the ‘easy’ out on those nights when Fisher is not playing. For all of this talent, there is no bench to speak of, so the Blues will be hoping that fatigue and injury do not derail their momentum. Rotation: On a team with a lesser batting order, this

might be an issue—well, they do have Patrick Corbin. And the Blues’ ace and free agent Jordan Lyles will be the workhorses in the rotation, which out of necessity, is six deep. Rich Hill, as cagey as ever, would be the natural #2 man behind Corbin, but will probably average a start every two weeks over the course of the season. Make ‘em count, Rich. Which makes Spencer Turnbull the default #3. He’ll give the team innings, and in spite of a 4.50+ ERA, the lineup will make him a winner more often than not. Rounding out the starting staff are Tyler Mahle—big arm, but long ball prone—and Drew Pomeranz, a name not mentioned much in the UBA lately. Again, the offense will make this work. Bullpen: Another potential headache. Steve Cishek will start the year as the closer. New Blue Ranger Suarez—brought in from Jacksonville—and rookies Kevin Ginkel and Tyler Rogers, will be the primary set-up men, but the rookies especially have a low innings threshold, meaning that they run the risk of being over-exposed rather quickly if the lesser starters falter. The same may hold true for another rookie, Buddy Boshers. The largest share of the workload will fall to veterans Joe Biagini and Richard Bleier, who will at least show up, but be woeful at times.. The farm has veteran Mike Morin, steady if not overpowering.. Expect to see him before May. Not the powerhouses of year’s past, but in a down year for the East, it is not hard to see them advancing to the finals. HAL: 1st Place; #3 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

SOUTHERN DIVISION—2ND—WC

MARAUDERS

S O U T H

So, if you are to believe HAL, the Marauders are going to spring from last place into the play-offs. And, they will do that because—if you believe HAL—they are the fourth best team in baseball. Well, they do have the scariest lineup in the East, but they face the same pitching questions as rival New Orleans. And, they don’t have Corbin... Lineup: Truly the Beast of the East. But, they were that before they made first baseman Peter Alonso their first pick in the draft. Now, the M’s batting order is off the charts. Alonso will likely lead the team in homeruns and RBIs and walk away with ROY honors. But, he is not the most dangerous stick in this lineup. Across the diamond, third baseman Rafael Devers will establish himself as one of the stars in this league, while out in center field, Ketel Marte will hit a bunch of homeruns while challenging for the batting title. Pick your poison. And, if you’re counting, that’s well over 100 homeruns right there. Memphis should get close to another 100 from the second-tier stars: right-fielder Franmil Reyes, shortstop Manny Machado and second baseman, Danny Santana. With luck, opposing pitchers will be able to hold Shin-Soo Choo (LF) and catcher Wilson Contreras to 50 or less, while they give thanks that there is no DH in the East. Admittedly, the bench is devoid of any notable sixth men—I’ll give Greg Garcia and Sean Rodriguez high marks for trying—but at least the Marauders have a bench, unlike the Blues. Rotation: And—for the last time—who cares about Corbin? Nothing here that Pete Alonso and his mates cannot overcome, I’m sure. Well, pretty sure. At the

top of the rotation is a pitcher who would be the ideal #2. Still, Chris Bassit will thrive on the run support and is good enough that the M’s should be favored in any game he starts. But, the lingering question with Bassit and the other quality arms in the rotation is whether or not they will make all their scheduled starts. Which is why Jake Junis slots in at #2. He is the innings eater for the staff—they need more—but too often he will be the source of the opoonents’ homer barrage. Alex Young and Jacob Waguespack are talented rookies, Young especially, but they will need to brought along slowly to remain effective. Mike Montgomery will start fulltime to alleviate some of the pressure on the kids, but will suffer if overused in that role. Chad Green will also open some games, as will Jesse Chavez, but that is not the long term answer. Bullpen: Besides, they will be needed in the pen. Chad Green may have the big arm, but Scott Oberg and Junior Guerra may prove to be the most valuable pieces at Joe Rudi’s disposal. They’ll be hardest to hit, for sure. Jose Alvarez, Jose Cisneros and Scott Alexander are serviceable though Alvarez will be as hittable at times as Oberg and Guerra are not. The best you can say about Jesse Chavez is that he won’t be terrible and that he will be able to start on occasion. After a couple of lost seasons, Mark Melancon will close again, but as with most of the arms in the pen, he will just be sufficient, not outstanding. Here’s to you, Pete Alonso. HAL: 2nd Place (WC); #4 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

SOUTHERN DIVISION—3RD

S O U T H

A decent squad, comparatively speaking, the Marlins have the unfortunate timing to be in this division at this moment, when no one is going to mount a serious threat to the play-off plans of the M’s or the Blues. But, they’ll have some laughs, win some games, just not nearly enough to count in the end. Lineup: The offensive production will boil down to two basic measures: the ability of shortstop Aldaberto Mondesi—who will be among the league’s most prolific base-stealers—and left-fielder Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., to serve as the catalysts; and, the ability of the legitimate power bats—first baseman Yulieski Gurriel and third baseman Max Muncy—to drive them in. As this quartet goes, so go the Marlins’ fortunes at the plate. There are some other components worth mentioning in the supporting cast. Free agent catcher Robinson Chirinos will be counted on to provide some power and production from behind the plate and sophomore second sacker Brandon Lowe will carry the same expectations. Injuries will slow centerfielder Aaron Hicks. And, though Alex Dickerson’s playing time will also be somewhat curtailed, what Marlins’ fans hope they get from him are glimpses of a brighter future. Though he will also bring speed to the basepaths and a great glove to all three outfield positions, free agent Jarrod Dyson will not overwhelm anyone at the dish. Ben Zobrist will come off the bench, his role greatly reduced, but not his batting eye. And, Sean Murphy will be forced to grow up a little sooner than anticipated as Chirinos’ backup. Rotation: A rather pedestrian collection of arms, but something that neither the Blues or Marauders can

boast—a set five man rotation. In fairness, the younger members of the starting staff bear watching, though their stats will not be overly impressive. Max Fried will get the Opening Day nod and as long as the bats support him, should qualify as the ‘ace’ of the staff before season’s end. The other twenty somethings, Caleb Smith and Vincent Velasquez, will be a little less efficient, but almost as effective overall. Greybeards David Price and Chase Anderson fill the remaining slots. Again, the numbers will not be gaudy, but solid collectively. And, Joe Girardi will rarely have to wonder who will be pitching tomorrow. Bullpen: The same cannot be said for the bullpen, where there are some real liabilities. At the backend, Blake Treinen has lost the strike zone and the closer’s job, but his replacement, Andrew Miller, may not fare too well, either. Free agent Justin Wilson and Tim Hill will be near sure things in setup. Daniel Poncedeleon and Dereck Rodriguez can also start in a pinch—though the Marlins should think twice about Rodriguez. Rookie Brandon Brennan will show flashes of brilliance. But, Treinen, Tim Mayza and Jace Fry, will fail miserably trying to duplicate the microscopic ERAs that they posted only a year ago, when the Marlins boasted one of the top staffs in baseball. Some likeable players, but it’s just not going to be the Marlins’ year, no matter what they do. Yet, the nucleus is there and ownership knows what to do. HAL: 3rd Place; #24 Overall

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Volume 1, Issue 42

SOUTHERN DIVISION—4TH

S O U T H

Say, isn’t that Miami in this boat? (Yes, but they are at least sitting in the bow). It will be a long year for the Sluggers as spectators in this race, but there are some young players to be excited about. Still, they’ll have to be on their game to avoid sliding to the bottom of the heap. That should keep the fans engaged. Lineup: Youth will be served, but it is the ’old’ man— 28 year old third baseman Kris Bryant—who will be the primary run producer for the Sluggers, and slug he should. And, while two other veterans—free agent first baseman Mitch Moreland and long-time leftfielder David Peralta—will make their contributions, it is the emerging stars who will capture the imaginations of the Louisville faithful. In the outfield there is the trio of Jesse Winker, Mallex Smith and Anthony Santander. Jacoby Jones get an honorable mention for his centerfield defense and his potential for power. While Smith will take a small step backwards, in their first chance to play every day, Winker and Santander will not disappoint. In the infield, shortstop Amed Rosario, second baseman David Fletcher and play-me-anywhere-just let-me-bat rookie Tommy Edman, will give the Sluggers lots of options up the middle. Edman can also play third when Bryant is positioned elsewhere. Louisville does have the luxury of flexibility. Oh, and a word or two about the catching corps. Yan Gomes backed up by Chris Iannetta. They’ll do. For now. Rotation: With ace Jamison Taillon on the shelf, the Sluggers will have to rely on their other recent farm

graduates and an import. The best of those will be Joey Lucchesi who should continue to make strides in his first full season with the parent club. The same cannot be said for Joe Musgrove in his third time around, but even taking a small step back he will still be a dependable #2. Yusei Kikuchi arrives from Japan and will find the adjustment more difficult then the Slugger brass would have hoped. Louisville may look to three starters to cover the final two slots. Rookie Adam Plutko will get most of those starts and should enjoy modest success, but it won’t be pretty. Matt Strahm and Gabriel Ynoa will rotate back and forth between long relief and starting assignments. Not the best of scenarios, but Taillon’s departure left a huge hole. Bullpen: But then, the Sluggers do have Brad Hand as their closer. And he has Archie Bradley and Buck Farmer in front of him. There are going to be nights when this will work. And, there will be those when it does not, and that may be due to the work of the other arms in the pen. The usually reliable Lou Trivino and Jose Alvarado will not be, and Gabriel Ynoa particularly will demonstrate why it’s tough to bounce back and forth between two roles, though fellow reliever-turned-starter Matt Strahm will also prove less than effective over the long haul. In the midst of all of this, rookie Ryan Helsley will put up some good numbers in a limited role. Hey, it’s just the wrong year to play in the South. HAL: 4th Place; #25 Overall

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Kris Bryant. If the offense is going to go anywhere, it needs his leadership. Joey Lucchesi. With Taillon gone for the year, the staff will need a stopper, and he is the best-equipped to fill that role. Brad Hand. The last line of defense for the Sluggers could be the difference between a lost season and, well, perhaps a third-place finish. The margins separating the also-rans in the South are razor thin.

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Volume 1, Issue 42

SOUTHERN DIVISION—5TH

ERRORS

S O U T H

The Terrors have focused on juicing up the offense, just in time to see the pitching that carried them into a second place finish last year—and, oh so close to the play-offs—descend to the third ring of hell. Tom will bring balance back to the club, but the script for this year may already be etched in stone. Lineup: And the offense has made some strides. Some. Though the Terror bats are no longer rated near the bottom of the UBA, statistically they are still the weakest in the division. When thigs do click, though, right-fielder Eddie Rosario will likely be in the mix, putting up his expected all star worthy numbers. But, this year he has a little help. Some of that will come in the form of those new additions. Starting with the free agent acquisitions: first baseman Matt Adams brings some power; former Firebird Corey Dickerson will just flat out hit; and, Stephen Vogt will be productive backing up behind the plate and at first. Rookie Mike Ford (1B) will also display good power in a back-up role. But, help will also come in the form of some vets who rediscover their batting mojo. Second baseman Dee Gordon will regain some of his discipline at the plate; left-fielder Dwight Smith, Jr. and catcher Roberto Perez will discover power they never knew they had; and, shortstop Freddy Galvis will once again command some respect wherever he lands in the batting order. Still, like last season, there will be some scoring droughts. Hopefully, the upgrades will keep them to a minimum. The pitching staff helped them get by with a little last season. That formula will not work again. Rotation: It’s uncanny, but last year’s surprise ace— Miles Mikolas—may still prove to be the big arm in

the rotation. But, the 2020 version will be a far cry from the guy who finished third in the Denny voting to Blake Snell. Worse, his stable mates, who made the Terrors rotation the most feared in the East—J.A. Happ and Jose Quintana—may, by comparison, make Mikolas look like a Denny finalist once again. Dinelson Lamet will be the most effective of the starters, but he is working his way back from Tommy John surgery a year ago and will not be allowed many innings. Rookie Dylan Cease will be forced into action and will probably be allowed too many innings. Steven Brault will be the least effective of the starters, but the Terrors have few options left. Ironically, Wade Miley—who departed for free agency—and Lance McCullers—who underwent Tommy John surgery—will have better seasons than any on the current staff.. Bullpen: If there is that ray of hope for the Terrors, it is their pen. Alex Colome returns to the back-end and will be an above-average closer. Chris Martin and Anthony Bass will be even better in set-up. Free agents David Phelps and Jerry Blevins will be worth every dollar the Terrors invested in them (a mere $37 for both, in case you were wondering). Luis Cessa will be solid in long relief. On the downside, Paul Fry will blow up every other appearance and Pedro Strop will also be terribly erratic, but on the whole, this is a good pen. And a good year to continue rebuilding toward the next competitive window. HAL: 5th Place; #27 Overall

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The Top Ten Batting Orders: San Antonio Memphis Atlanta New Orleans San Diego Chicago Phoenix Mexico City Washington Oklahoma City The Top Ten Pitching Staffs: Seattle Phoenix Vancouver Milwaukee Kansas City San Diego New York New Orleans Denver Chicago HAL’s Mythical Top Ten: 1. Phoenix 2. San Diego 3. New Orleans 4. Memphis 5. Chicago 6. Seattle 7. Kansas City 8. Vancouver 9. Washington 10. Atlanta Teams in bold appear on both the top ten batting and pitching lists. Rankings are based on a statistical averaging and weighting of all of the statistics used in the compilation of the other lists. Tal k to HAL.

HAL v. The Commissioner—Head to Head HAL

The Commish Eastern Conference

North Milwaukee New York Toledo Buffalo Pittsburgh South New Orleans Memphis Miami Louisville Tallahassee Atlantic Washington Atlanta Jacksonville Baltimore Richmond

New York Milwaukee Toledo Pittsburgh Buffalo New Orleans Memphis Miami Louisville Tallahassee Washington Jacksonville Atlanta Baltimore Richmond Western Conference

Central Chicago Kansas City Dallas Denver Oklahoma City Southwest Phoenix San Diego Salt Lake City Mexico City San Antonio Pacific Seattle Vancouver Los Angeles Oakland San Francisco Champion:

Phoenix

Dallas Chicago Kansas City Denver Oklahoma City Phoenix San Diego Mexico City San Antonio Salt Lake City Seattle Los Angeles Oakland Vancouver San Francisco

Dallas

I T ’ S S E A T T L E , P H O E N I X M AY B E , A N D T H E N A N YO N E ’ S G U E S S I N T H E P OW E R - P AC K E D W E S T While the Central will provide a three-way battle of the titans, it is the Southwest that grabs the mantle as—top to bottom—the UBA’s toughest division. And though the Pacific has only one can’t miss contender in Seattle, the depth of the other two divisions means there are no less than eight other clubs are in the mix for the other four play-off berths. Bring it on. The Central: Flip a coin. The resurgent Kansas City Monarchs and the powerful Bluegills of Chicago will go headto-head with defending champion Dallas. I have no idea how this fight will end. Chicago has the best lineup. Kansas City the best pitching. And, Dallas has enough of both. The margins separating these clubs are so slim, that by default I give the nod to Dallas to emerge as division champion. Paper-schmaper—the Colts have won 223 games over the past two seasons. You’ll have to beat them on the field to convince me. I will admit, though, that either Chicago or Kansas City could, so, flip a coin. Just like last year, though, I do think that all three teams make the play-offs. I just wish I knew with more certainty, the order. Denver will make a good showing for a team going nowhere in the post season while Oklahoma City—a top ten offense with little pitching to weather the monsters lineups around it—will gear up for a run in 2021. The Southwest: Flip another coin. Phoenix is built to survive this marathon and I agree with HAL that they should finish the season on top. Should. But, to do that they will have to outlast the UBA’s top-ranked offense— and not by a little—in San Antonio; another top five bat-

ting order in San Diego—which is backed by a trio of mound aces—and the suddenly relevant Aguilas Doradas of Mexico City, whose high picks the last few years have netted three of the best young players in baseball—Soto, Bellinger, and Tatis, Jr.—to which they added—via trade—J.D. Martinez. And, please don’t forget the UBA’s perennial over-achievers in Salt Lake City, who won it all in 2016 with the worst record of any of the division winners. This will be insane from Day 1. The Pacific: Steve Matheis has patiently weathered the pounding of Pacific powerhouses past, while steadily accumulating the talent necessary to take the division. This year, his Seattle Knights will do that and perhaps more. HAL slots them in at #6 overall in his rankings. In what will be a down year for the rest of the division— the Central and Southwest will show no mercy—expect Los Angeles to win the silver while the Seals of Oakland slide into a third place finish. HAL shows far more faith in Vancouver than their actual situation merits— the numbers can lie—and San Francisco—after a great draft in March—is just going to be along for the ride, hoping to reap the benefits of another set of high draft picks next spring. Who ultimately survives to face the Eastern champion is really an educated guess. Based on their track record and their front office, I have to lean toward the defending champions—hey, they’re on the cover!!! - but I think that Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle and Kansas City all have a legitimate shot at the Championship.

BREAKING DOWN THE CONFERENCE HOW

THE

COMMISH SEES ‘EM....

Central: Dallas …..….……...............p. 24 Chicago …….....................p. 25 Kansas City……................p. 26 Denver……….....................p. 27 Oklahoma City ..……........p. 28

Southwest: Phoenix............................p. 30 San Diego….....................p. 31 Mexico City…...................p. 32 San Antonio…..... ............p. 33 Salt Lake City....... ...........p. 34

Pacific: Seattle……….....................p. 36 Los Angeles......................p. 37 Oakland….……..................p. 38 Vancouver……..................p. 39 San Francisco…...............p. 40

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CENTRAL DIVISION—1ST

C E N T R A L

For a record seventh time, the Colts are defending UBA champs. HAL’s convinced it won’t be a long reign, but I wouldn’t take that bet, not yet, and not given the tenacity of the front office. Sure, they might not take this division, but they’ll be in the play-offs, and whoever looks to dethrone them will still have to beat them on the field. Lineup: Rebuilding in place, the Colts dealt slugger J.D. Martinez to the Aguilas for three hot prospects. But don’t shed too many tears for them, because this lineup is still bristling with power— and has even added a little speed in the process. At the heart of the lineup, DH Nelson Cruz and the man who has waited for this opportunity for three seasons—first baseman Josh Bell—will leave pitching staffs in tatters. Ahead of them—on most days at the top of the order—right fielder Charlie Blackmon and rookie third sacker Yoan Moncada will also do their share of feasting. Joey Gallo (CF) and Andrew McCutchen (LF) will provide even more power, though injury may slow them down a step. That will only give rookie Colin Moran and veterans Matt Joyce and Delino Deshields a chance to show what they can do. And, if they need more power, Daniel Vogelbach leads an array of talent just waiting for the call down in Fort Worth. Adam Frazier and Niko Goodrum—who will occasionally lead off—form a steady keystone combination and the catching tandem of Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz returns, to form the weak link in the batting order. Matt Carpenter will still display decent power, but will have trouble finding enough at bats. Don’t underestimate this lineup.

Rotation: While Chris Sale will struggle through a subpar season—for him, at least—his mates will step up like defending champs, giving the Colts an above-average starting five, and more than enough for the run support they will receive. Mike Minor will get the Opening Day honors and should hold his own as the default number one. Sandy Alcantara—yet another Colt who has been waiting for an opportunity to be a regular–and rookie Dakota Hudson, will also provide the Colts with all the pitching they need as the next men up behind Minor. Slotting in at number four is Robbie Ray, who at times will walk too many batters and allow too many homers, but who will also miss a ton of bats—even more than Sale and Minor—and still find a way to win more games than not. And then, there is Sale. Whatever is ailing him, the strikeouts and low WHIP will be there, and plenty of runs to protect him. Bullpen: No set closer, which could be an issue, but like the rotation, a talented group on the whole. The big arms belong to Keone Kela and Julio Urias. Free agent Francisco Liriano and Matt Barnes may get the first shots at closing. Rookie Jake Newberry will be so-so in small doses and veteran Collin McHugh will provide long relief and– like Urias—can also start in a pinch. The Colts are a bit short-handed in the pen, and there is not much relief on the farm. If the Colts are in the thick of it, this could be an issue, but I know that the front office can handle it. HAL: 3rdPlace; #12 Overall

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C E N T R A L

Last season—once again—HAL snubbed the Northsiders and they won 106 games, just a game behind the UBA champs. HAL’s not snubbing them, now. I’m not either, really. The ‘Gills check all the boxes and then some and they—as much as any team—are a serious threat to take it all. Let’s print those play-off tickets, Colin, and roll the dice. The ‘Gills are all in. Lineup: Last season, only the Colts hit more homeruns and scored more runs than the Chicago Bluegills. This season the ’Gills should pick up where they left off. Reign ing MV P Mookie Betts (RF) and center-fielder Mike Trout have become fixtures at the top of the Chicago lineup, and will spend a lot of time on base or rounding them as the sparks of the offense. The power bats of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Sano, playing across the infield at third, and last year’s rookie sensation—second baseman Ozzie Albies—will follow in some order. In his first full season with the ‘Gills, Renato Nunez will also supply 30+ power at the DH slot. He could also play third, but, let’s remain serious for the moment. Another fixture, Yadier Molina, returns for his sixth season behind the plate and—spelled by Michael Zunino—should remain productive. Byron Buxton will get most of the reps in left field this season, though rookie Matt Beaty and last year’s super-sub, Jake Cave will also get a fair share of looks. Not their usual M.O., but the club turned to the free agent market in the wake of shortstop Addison Russell’s pending suspension and landed the slick-fielding and above-average stick of Jose Iglesias. Good catch. And, a great lineup. Rotation: This will be C.C. Sabathia’s final season—

he broke in with New York in 2002 and later pitched for Jacksonville before arriving in Chicago in 2016. He’ll get his starts from the end of the rotation this year, and though at times he’ll look like he’s already retired, he’ll still average a ‘K’ an inning. The ace of the staff is now Jose Berrios and he should follow last season’s 17 –4 performance with more of the same. The statistically better Jake Odorizzi and the cagey lefty Cole Hamels will follow Berrios and give the Bluegills yet another trio of arms that will thrive given the support from Betts, Trout and Co. Rookie Merrill Kelly comes up to take the slot held last year by Chad Bettis and should fare well in spite of the usual rookie lapses. Diego Castillo will see some starts when C.C. or Kelly needs a breather. A good unit. Bullpen: Some potential trouble. Felipe Vazquez is one of the three best closers in baseball, but his future is in serious doubt. But, when he eventually departs, the ‘Gills are not without options—Jose LeClerc and Diego Castillo are both viable 9th inning guys. And Samuel Tuivailala and J.B. Wendelken will be nearly unhittable in the 8th or wherever else they deploy. Hunter Wood and Ryne Harper aren't too shabby, either, which is to say that Chicago may have all the exits covered when it comes to locking up games late, no matter what fate and criminal justice has in store for them. Well, they do have Miguel Castro, but by next year, the lanky fire-baller, too, will be a real plus. HAL: 1st Place; #5 Overall

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CENTRAL DIVISION—3RD—WC

C E N T R A L

OK, since all three of the Central powers have a legitimate claim to first place, let’s make the cop out complete by predicting that they will finish as they did last year, with all three in the play-offs. But, I can safely say, that if Chicago or Dallas do not win this division, it will be the Monarchs. Maybe. Probably. Lineup: Gee, the offense is only ranked #13? Are we sure this is a Central team? Well, whatever division they are in, the Monarchs have one of the best weapons in baseball in the form of Nolan Arenado (3B). Even spacious Monarch Stadium will not keep him from his appointed rounds: a .300+ average, 100+ ribbies; and, forty homeruns, give or take. And, with right fielder Austin Meadows and first baseman Matt Olson batting in close proximity, he may fare even better. But, that’s not all. This lineup has gotten a lot longer since 2019. In the outfield, Meadows is joined by David Dahl, Tommy Pham and rookie Christin Stewart; a fine mix of power and speed—especially Pham. Upgrades across the board. In the infield, C.J. Cron returns and should rebound nicely at DH and as a good defensive option behind Olson. Up the middle, free agent Starlin Castro (2B) teams with Bill Miller, Adeiny Hechavarria, Garrett Hampson—guys who can play almost anywhere—and shortstop Orlando Arcia, to give the Monarchs plenty of options and a lot pop; and, in Arcia, another potential gold glove to pair with Arenado. Buster Posey and Matt Wieters will do a creditable job as they return to handle the catching chores for another season, perhaps not as formidable, but still solid.

Rotation: And now, perhaps the best part. HAL ranks the Monarchs’ pitching as fifth best overall, and most of that is because of the rotation. Blessed with three number ones, the Monarchs will pin their play-off hopes—and eventual October success—to these thoroughbreds. In whatever order they take to the hill, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber will be nothing short of an annoyance to opposing hitters. I can’t imagine having to face them in a three game series, but many teams will. Trevor Bauer will follow, and though he will struggle to keep the ball in the park, he will still pitch effectively. Daniel Mengden will show up at #5. Bullpen: Taylor Rogers takes over as the full-time closer and the decision will prove to be a good one. Jimmy Cordero, Pedro Baez and rookie J.D. Hammer will be the best at protecting Monarch leads until he can touch the ball late. Luke Bard and Jay Jackson will not be as efficient but are not going to be liabilities, either, Bard doing his best impression of Bauer. A.J. Minter—who shared closer chores last season—is still on the team but every effort should be made to ensure that when he pitches, the game is already out of reach one way or another. Given the rotation’s strength, the bullpen should not be overworked in any event. They will make the play-offs, and do have the talent to take this division if things break the right way. The Monarchs do have a pitching edge over Chicago and Dallas. That may be all it takes. HAL: 2nd Place; #8 Overall

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CENTRAL DIVISION—4TH

C E N T R A L

Not only are the Mustangs one step closer to relevance in the Central, for the second year in a row their pitching staff has been ranked in the top ten (#9 this season, up one slot). But—like Miami in the South—Denver finds itself with an improving team that has no where to go but right where it is. Lineup: Five teams scored over 800 runs last year— all were in the West, four were in the Central, and the Mustangs were one of them. They might not repeat that feat in 2020, but the current edition is still capable of administering a pounding, especially at Coors. Up the middle, a lot of pop and pizazz. The ‘Stangs signed free agent Austin Romine and drafted Austin Nola, and the result is one of their better catching crews in years. The middle infield will regularly feature power hitting Paul DeJong at short and Jonathan Villar at second, poised to have a breakout season with some power of his own and on the basepaths. Another rookie, Keston Hiura, will get some reps at second and also DH against righthanders. His numbers will impress. Centerfield belongs to Lorenzo Cain, and while his bat may have slowed just a tad, his defense will still be outstanding. Flanking Cain, former Oakland slugger Marcel Ozuna and fellow free agent Alex Gordon; and Brian Goodwin, will be another source of steady production. At first base, Wil Myers and Rowdy Tellez should combine for about 30 bombs and 100+ RBIs. I’ll take it. And, fresh from the farm at third, Gio Urshela will—like Hiura—have an auspicious Denver debut. The Mustangs can run with the best of them. Rotation: The Mustangs possess the proverbial ‘ace

in the hole.’ in the person of Jacob deGrom, who was second only to Denny winner Max Scherzer in ERA and strikeouts. The fire-balling righthander seems primed to pick up where he left off. Number two in the rotation is yet another rookie who will make a significant contribution— left hander John Means. From there the ‘Stangs turn to veteran Adam Wainwright, whose rebirth as a pitcher could not be more timely. Chris Archer will trade more on his potential than his talent in the fourth slot and rookie Asher Wojciechowski will open the season at the back-end while another talented rookie, Aaron Civale, will bide his time in Boulder before debuting later in the year. Bullpen: A mixed bag, but the biggest news is the addition of the free agent late inning god, Will Harris, on a three year contract. If he is touching the ball on the way to closer Daniel Hudson, it must be a fun night at Coors. Assisting him in that chore will be another sublime rookie—Josh Taylor—and veteran Kevin McCarthy. Now, from here, it gets a little dicey. Jose Urena, Brad Brach and Zack Godley round out the bullpen, and they will only add to Coors’ reputation as being one of the most hitterfriendly parks in the game. Wild finishes have been a trademark of the Mustangs. This trio may write some endings that management did not have in mind. If there is a saving grace, Urena and Godley can start when needed. One thing is obvious, the ‘Stangs had a good draft, and they are heading in the right direction. Cut ‘em a break, HAL. HAL: 4th Place; #15 Overall

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CENTRAL

C E N T R A L

DIVISION—

5TH

HAL’s 10th ranked offense is still 6th in the West, but second only to Chicago in this division. If they were not so far behind their division rivals in pitching, I might have predicted a higher finish, but of course, that would only be as high as fourth. And, the Mustangs’ staff is second only to KC’s in the Central. Lineup: Well, they are gonna score some runs. And, though the Otters are dangerously thin at certain positions—they have a real dearth of infielders—they are nonetheless, power-packed. Nowhere is that more evident than behind the plate. J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. He can hit, hit with power, drive in runs, and catch a heck of a lot of ballgames though he will see some time at first. When he does, Gary Sanchez—an absolute beast at the plate, and defensively behind it, unfortunately—will be crushing baseballs at a feverish pace. Sanchez will serve as the primary DH, so he will get his licks. Around the depleted infield, the Otters will line up rookie Ryan McMahon at first, Asdrubal Cabrera (2B) and Corey Seager (SS) up the middle, and the free-swinging Javier Baez at third. A lot of long balls around the horn. In the outfield, Oklahoma City will rotate five players in and out of the lineup, though the mainstay will be centerfielder Ramon Laureano. Flanking him on any given day will be Clint Frazier, Jake Marisnick, Francisco Mejia and the very dangerous rookie, Aristides Aquino, soon to be breaking car windows on stadium parking lots hear you. Gregory Polanco and rookie Jack Mayfield will occupy the bench, mostly, while Kaleb Cowart and Sam Haggerty bide their time in Tulsa waiting for the inevitable injury to bring them into the mix. Rotation: They’re gonna give them up, too. Runs, I

mean. The Otters have 38 pitchers in their system—and while some of them are going to pay off big time later—for now they have had to cobble together this year’s rotation almost from scratch. Jeff Sam a r d z i j a — resurrected from the dead and acquired from Miami—will be the Opening Day starter, followed by the likely to be suspended by September, Domingo German. It’s all downhill from there. Peter Lambert will be begging to be sent back to Tulsa by May. He will be followed by fragile once-and-future ace Tyler Glasnow, who will depart after a few starts, hopefully to return by late August. Ryne Stanek—as he did last year—will take a regular turn as opener, and rookie Dustin May, Cam Bedrosian and rookie Brendan McKay (Tulsa) will fill in as needed. The bad luck with the rotation continues for another season. The Otters must feel cursed. Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman is still the man and the Otters hope and pray that he will be kept busy doing what he does best. Not likely, but it won’t be the fault of the bullpen. There are some good arms present in addition to the closer, including Reyes Moronta and Robert Stephenson, Alex Claudio and the aforementioned spot starters, May and Bedrosian. Victor Alcantara and Drew VerHagen complete the squad, but VerHagen might best be used in mop up, though he may cause more bleeding than he staunches. It may be along year in OKC. But, as noted, there is a lot of pitching in the pipeline. HAL: 5th Place; #19 Overall

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PORTLAND – I’m not very good at fantasy baseball. I’ve had some luck in the realm of fantasy football over the years, but as far as fantasy baseball goes, well – I’m kind of terrible. It’s not for lack of understanding of the game – my childhood obsession with the sport and its statistics never really left me. And I have a fairly strong grasp of fantasy sports and how they work. But I just can’t seem to put it all together. Sometime not long after this story sees print, I’ll be in attendance at the draft for the Bangor Drum Slowly League. It’s a 10-team AL-only keeper league with an auction draft. We’re drafting in Portland because two of the 10 members live in southern Maine; we usually draft in Bangor, but every fifth year, we head down south to keep things equitable. I will go. I will draft my team. I will watch that players on said team throughout the six months of the MLB season. And I will lose. It’s probably worth mentioning that while this is my eighth year at the helm of Allen’s Coffee Brandies, the BDSL has been around a lot longer than I have. Decades longer, in fact – it’s one of the longest continuously-running fantasy baseball leagues in the state of Maine. It has been around long enough that the league’s founders were in direct contact with Dan Okrent, who is considered by many to be the inventor of Rotisserie baseball (so named for the restaurant in which the earliest drafts took place). Eight years and nary a win. Not even really a sniff – I’ve had a couple of high finishes, but even those were in seasons where there was a runaway winner. The reality is that I’ve never been close – a reality that I don’t anticipate will change this time around. So why keep playing? Because even when I’m bad at it, I enjoy it. Here are the basics. We’re an AL-only league, so only American League players are eligible to be picked. The draft is an auction format; each team has a total budget of $260 with which to bid on a total of 24 players. We’re also a dynasty league, meaning we can keep players for more than one season. Each team is allowed up to 12 keepers, but their salaries are deducted from the aforementioned $260. In addition, there’s what’s called an Ultra Draft immediately following the auction, with each team selecting 16 more players in four tiers and minor leaguers can be kept at the expense of a draft pick and don’t count against your keeper total. That’s the nuts-and-bolts of it. Real talk – this is a competitive league. There are some awfully good fantasy GMs here; I’m just not one of them. And that’s OK. I will undoubtedly make my fair share of bad choices on draft day. Will I overpay for a guy who drastically underperforms expectations? Absolutely. Will I grab a guy who immediately gets injured or busted doing PEDs? Most likely. Will I pass on a player to save a couple of bucks, only to end the draft with leftover cash and spend the next six months regretting it? You better believe it. And I don’t care. Someone will forget that it’s their turn. Someone else will try to draft someone selected an hour before. Someone’s overpay will be good-naturedly mocked and someone’s bargain will be begrudgingly praised. We’ll reach the end of the draft and it will look like we have a clear winner, but a whole lot can happen over the course of a season. (You hear that, Preble? You can’t win EVERY year!) I’ll go in with a strategy, of course, but it will almost certainly get blown to hell almost immediately. Sticking to a plan isn’t my strong suit. Not that my plans are that great; when you’re counting on a mid-tier shortstop who just got suspended half the season as one of your keeper cornerstones, things haven’t really gone your way. But it doesn’t matter. It’s not impossible that I could stumble into a winning season. It’s extremely unlikely, but possible. If things break my way and I get lucky with some of my rolls of the dice, I could make a run – hope springs eternal and all that. But even if I wind up in the cellar or in my usual position in the mediocre middle, it’ll have been worth the trip. Ultimately, I guess my statement at the beginning of this story isn’t quite accurate. I’m not very good at WINNING fantasy baseball, it’s true. But as far as deriving joy from playing the game? I’d say I’m pretty darned good after all.

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SOUTHWEST DIVISION—1ST

S O U T H W E S T

The Firebirds took this division by 30 games last year. 30. But that was then, and now the Firebirds are facing four division rivals, at least three of whom will give them a run at the big prize. Still, on balance, I agree with HAL that the ’Birds enter the season as the team to beat—on paper. Time will tell, but if they survive this division race, they very well could be. Lineup: The Firebirds’ offense only comes in as HAL’s sixth best, but don’t feel too sorry for them, since they could take a day off and not be missed by their starting pitchers. At the heart of the order, in no particular order, are first baseman Carlos Santana, right fielder Bryce Harper and one of the pre-season MVP favorites, shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Hard to argue with that threesome. Setting the table for them will be some combination of Adam Eaton (LF), Josh Reddick (DH) and rookie center fielder Orlando Mercado. Following them will be Justin Turner at the hot corner, catcher Jorge Alfaro, the occasional Jose Martinez and rookie second baseman Nicky Lopez. Tyler Flowers ably backs up Alfaro Charlie Culberson and rookie Mauricio Dubon fill the utility roles. And, Yandy Diaz is chomping at the bit in Tucson for his chance to rake. What more can I say. When Harper, Bogaerts and company get it rolling, this train will be hard to stop. Rotation: So, the Firebirds trade away reigning Denny winner Max Scherzer to New York and then send Lucas Giolito packing to Mexico City for draft picks. That’s confidence. But, when Noah Syndergaard is penciled in as your number four, that says something. And, when HAL still ranks your staff as second best in baseball, that says something, too. With

Scherzer gone, Justin Verlander is now the undisputed ace of the staff and he should turn in a Denny worthy season. Following him to the mound will be another potential Denny finalist in the person of Stephen Strasburg. Rookie Zac Plesac will make his professional debut and should put up decent numbers, or at least be good enough for the support he will receive. Noah Syndergaard will have a few Chris Sale moments, but his overall impact will still be a plus. The man can still bring it. With Luis Severino on the shelf for at least this season, and now, maybe next, Ross Stripling will get most of the starts at #5, spelled on occasion by Sean Reid-Foley and Blake Parker. Bullpen: So, what’s not to like out here. The ’Birds have two legit closers and perhaps a third in Parker, but will go with Josh Hader in that role, setup by Sean Doolittle with a smattering of rookie Emmanuel Clase and the occasional Tyler Duffy thrown in for good measure. You spend all day trying to figure out Verlander and this is how they reward you. Andrew Chafin will be the lefty specialist, and besides Parker—who can close or start—and Reid-Foley, Adam Warren returns, but only for comic relief. Phoenix’ window is still very much open. HAL figures they are the team to beat and who am I to argue. If they do not emerge as champions—they last won in 1993 and lost in the finals to the Blues in 2018—they will surely go seven against whoever eventually does. HAL: 1st Place; #1 Overall

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For the want of a nail… I really like this team, but I am wary of the lack of depth across the board. If everything breaks right for the Braves, they will push Phoenix to the limit, showing why HAL boldly ranks them as the #2 team in baseball. But—and I think this is the proverbial BIG but—if injuries hit the position players and if the thin rotation is overtaxed— which it will be—things could go south in a hurry. Lineup: Phoenix has the starters, but the Braves’ trio of sluggers is debatably unmatched—save for anytime Aaron Judge is taking BP. The combination of George Springer (CF), Edwin Encarnacion (1B-DH) and budding super star Alex Bregman (SS) will certainly give Justin Verlander something to think about. (And, if he’s thinking, let me tell you about Sean Doolittle). Now, add to that mix, rookie outfielder/DH Yordan Alvarez. On days when he us in the lineup the Braves will be downright frightening. The rest of the supporting cast is a little less so. In the outfield, Ryan Braun will bounce back and forth between the lead-off spot—against lefties— and the bottom third. Khris Davis will struggle more than usual at the plate, but will still deliver 20+ dingers and a more modest RBI total than he is accustomed to providing. Wilmer Flores, Johan Camargo and Brandon Dixon will split most of the at bats between second and third. Flores is the best hitter; Dixon has the most power. Martin Prado will also see his playing time increased. Free agent bargain Jonathan Lucroy and Austin Barnes lead an adequate catching trio, which also includes holdover Cam Gallagher, though his presence is more due to the lack of depth than anything else. Rotation: In 2016, the Braves spent a ton of money

on former Dallas starting pitcher Zack Greinke. During this off-season, the Braves decided it was time to spend another ton on another ace from the Colts—Gerrit Cole. All things considered, they just may be worth the investment. Joining them—after his shaky debut with the club last September—is rookie Mike Soroka, who will give the Braves not only the most expensive trio of starting pitchers in the UBA, but arguably, it’s best. After Soroka, it’s time for some serious rain dancing. Trevor Cahill and opener Andrew Kitt red ge will begin the season as the backend of the Braves’ rotation. It will not be pretty. Beyond them, Nick Margevicius and Gregory Soto wait on the farm, but they are even worse options, though at some point they will be on the roster. The efforts of the front end might be in vain if the back-end collapses. Bullpen: More challenges, complicated by the absence of a true closer. Trevor May and Stefan Crichton are the two best choices to form a closer by committee. Chaz Roe and Robert Gsellman are also credible arms that could try on that that role. All four should see late inning action in some order. Outside of the occasional passable performance by Daniel Stumpf, the rest of the pen is a disaster waiting to happen, with Phil Maton, Taylor Cole and what’s left of Brad Boxberger getting their turns. David Hale and Jeff Brigham should bring some help from the farm as next up. What is good about this team is great. But, the lack of depth, particularly on the mound is troubling. HAL: 2nd Place (WC); #2 Overall

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SOUTHWEST DIVISION—3RD

S O U T H W E S T

There is a lot to like at El Nido de Aguilas. Shrewd draft picks and even shrewder trades have transformed the Aguilas Doradas into a serious contender, knocking on the division door. The fourth SW lineup to get a top ten nod form HAL, the pitching may dictate whether or not the Eagles are for real or still a year away. Win or lose, the Aguilas have made some serious strides forward. Lineup: Talk about power. The heart of the Eagles’ lineup will harness the talents of one established megastar and two more who this season will announce their arrival as such. Former Colt standout J.D. Martinez (RF) will mix it up with the superkids Juan Soto (LF) and Cody Bellinger (CF) and shatter a number of franchise run productions records along the way. The supporting cast is more than adequate. Domingo Santana will rediscover some of his power as DH; rookie slugger Austin Riley will get in some licks at third and in the outfield; the starting third base platoon of Brandon Drury and Rio Ruiz will be lightweights with average, but combine for good power numbers from the hot corner; Jonathan Schoop, rookie Richie Martin and Tim Beckham— well, Schoop and Beckham at least—will also be productive up the middle; while Victor Caratini and Manny Pina handle the catching chores. But the best part is that sometime in May, shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. will make his debut, and what was a run machine to begin with, will kick it up another notch or two. The days of benefitting from those high, protected picks are gone. It’s time to reap the benefits for a while. Rotation: Still a work in progress, but as the story

line goes in this division, the arms may be enough for what the bats will yield. The ace in development is Lucas Giolito and this season he will show why the Firebirds should not have traded him, especially within the division. It will come back to haunt them. Yu Darvish is set to rebound after a disastrous 2019 and will be injury free for the first season in more than a few. Free agent Dallas Keuchel will be solid as the number three, though how many starts he has in him remains to be seen. Daniel Norris will take a step forward as well in his somewhat arrested development. Trevor Williams will just do his level best, though his attendance will be perfect. And, again, showing up may be all that’s needed. Bullpen: Sound arms in the pen, but another no bona fide closer scenario. John Brebbia is the choice for the ninth inning at the moment, set up ably from the right by Joe Smith and on the left by Oliver Perez. Anthony Swarzak—who led last year’s committee of closers with 6 saves—and Jake McGee are also possibilities for the closer role, but both are long ball prone. Carlos Estevez is solid, as is Josh Osich in the right situations. Unfortunately, there is no Tatis equivalent on the farm to spell this staff, though expect Bryan Shaw to be working his way over from Monterrey on a fairly regular basis. This division is impossible to handicap. I don’t think the Aguilas can win it, but they are no longer cellar dwellers. Not by a long shot. HAL: 4th Place; #14 Overall

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SOUTHWEST DIVISION—4TH

S O U T H W E S T

The lineup is the best there is and if the batters mash, San Antonio could find themselves as high as second, maybe even scare the ‘Birds. But the pitching is so suspect, that the Wranglers might find themselves treading water in mid-division all year. Still, a very dangerous team. Very dangerous. Lineup: It is easy to see why HAL rates the Wranglers as the best at bat. Why the catching tandem of Kurt Suzuki and Tom Murphy alone will combine for 30 dingers and drive in about 100 or so. I’d take that. And, they are not the headliners in this order. That distinction belongs to potential homerun king Jorge Soler (RF) and second baseman Gleyber Torres. But those two big bat are only the beginning of the story. In the outfield with Soler you have Mark Canha (CF) and Nomar Mazara (LF) poised to get most of the at bats. But, Jordan Luplow is going to grab his share against lefties because he will absolutely murder them. And, every once in a while rookie Harold Ramirez will want to play. In the infield with Torres, the corners are covered by slugger Rhys Hoskins at first and the solid bat and glove of Bryan Anderson at third. The oftinjured Carlos Correa will start at short, but when he goes down it only means that rookie hitting machine Luis Arraez gets even more at bats. And, then there is super-sub, DH and pinch-hitter deluxe Howie Kendrick, who will see time at the corners as well and be a huge contributor to the overall effort. There is so much firepower in this division, but the Wranglers have the most ammunition. Their pitching may undo their play-off hopes, but this is an offense that will not be denied. They’ll be fun to watch. Rotation: And, seriously, this could get really ugly. What is undeniable, though, is that San Antonio has

an elite starter in Charlie Morton. With this offense, he could win 30. And in all fairness, free agent Jason Vargas will be this side of adequate pitching behind him. From there it really goes south in a hurry. Last year’s budding star, Reynaldo Lopez, will take a big step backwards in his development and will struggle all season long. And, Antonio Senzatela will look at times as if it is the first time he has held a baseball. Elieser Hernandez will be slightly more effective, but with limited innings, which means Matt Wisler will have to pick up some of the slack. Not a plus. Jefry Rodriguez, though, will bring some help from the farm when recalled. Maybe opposing hitters will be so demoralized by the pounding administered by the Wrangler bats, that they’ll roll over. I don’t think that will be the case. Bullpen: Yeah, but they do have a closer. He’s no Kirby Yates, but converted starter Ian Kennedy knows how to pitch and he will do just nicely. Rookie Sam Coonrod and veteran Joe Kelly will be among those most often used in the later innings. Colton Brewer will get some looks there as well, but not show much consistency. On a good night, the rest of the pen will resemble a demolition derby, as Matt Wisler, Neil Ramirez and the once talented Hunter Strickland compete for the highest ERA that doesn't belong to Antonio Senzatela. If the pitching doesn't completely offset the offense, the Wranglers have a great shot at the playoffs. How far they might advance is another story. HAL: 5th Place; #17 Overall

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I’m going to regret this. The sneakiest team in the UBA—they won it all in 2016 with a roster that should not have even made the play-offs—always plays above expectations. This is a good team, but someone has to be the odd man out in this division and I don’t think the pitching will last the season intact. But, I have been very wrong about this team before. Lineup: How can you have the 11th best offense in the UBA—according to HAL, that is—and yet, be ranked fifth in your own division. That is my way of saying that the Saints are not coming into this brawl in the Southwest unarmed—just not as well-armed as the rest of the class. No matter. They are led by the best power hitter that you never heard of in third baseman Eugenio Suarez. He is surrounded by a cast of sluggers which includes left-fielder Kyle Schwarber; free agent prize Nick Castellanos (RF), and the suddenly dangerous center-fielder, Brett Gardner. Starting catcher Omar Narvaez will also leave some bruises on opponents’ ERAs. Free agent Jason Kipnis (2B), David Bote(SS-2B) and Jordy mercer (SS) will get most of the at-bats up the middle, and will also contribute their fair share of longballs. First base is a little different story, where Ronald Guzman and Ryan Zimmerman will platoon. Zimm will take a stab at aging gracefully while Guzman will spend the season trying to remember where he left his prowess at the plate. Jose Osuna (OF) and journeyman Logan Forsythe (INF) will be solid off the bench. OK. Ultimately they are out-gunned in their own division, but with Suarez and Co., they may hold their own for a while. It might be, though, that the lack of speed and defense is the bigger factor. Rotation: A prognostication conundrum. The quality

is certainly here. Aaron Nola is a top of the rotation guy, and though he may slump a tad this season, he will still do the state of Utah proud. To a lesser extent, the same will be said of the season that is going to be turned in by free agent Homer Bailey, and Zach Eflin, newly arrived via trade from Denver. So far, so good. But consider this: the two most effective starters are likely to be Luke Weaver and Yonny Chirinos, and keeping them on the mound for a significant stretch of time may be difficult. Which opens the door for Tom Pannone and Adrian Sampson to demonstrate why the door should not have been left open for them. Trying to contain the firepower of this division is going to require all hands to be on deck. I’m just saying that if the best hands are unable to post with regularity, out-gunned Salt Lake City may end the 2020 season as the best team to finish fifth. Bullpen: Unlike San Diego and Mexico City, the Saints do have a bona fide closer in residence— Robert Osuna—and a bona fide set-up man in Ryan Pressley—a backend of biblical proportions. John Gant and Marcus Walden will put out the fires burning before Pressley rises to warm up. Chase Bradford and Javy Guerra will be answers to prayer when they are handed the ball, too, though there will be times when fans do not like the answers. Tom Pannone will also be available for long relief, but that will usually be a sign that Salt Lake has packed it in for the night. Regardless of what I say, though, the baseball gods love the Saints. So, look for them to challenge for a wild card berth. HAL: 3rd Place; #11 Overall

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PA C I F I C D I V I S I O N — 1 S T

P A C I F I C

Another instance where HAL’s analysis might be skewed, only in the Knights’ favor. This team is much better and much deeper than the computer can fathom. Which means that though we agree the Knights are the team to beat in the Pacific, they just might prove to be the team to beat. Period. Lineup: Compared to the high-powered batting orders in the other two divisions, the Knights would seem to be breath of fresh air for punch-drunk pitching staffs. Don’t be fooled. Seattle’s is the perfect blend of power, speed, and defense, which m ea ns — pa i red with HAL’s #1 pitching staff— they can—and will—beat you in myriad ways. One of the more prominent power bats belongs to right fielder Max Kepler, who is joined in the outfield by the best defensive centerfielder in the game—Kevin Kiermaier— and the left-field platoon of rookie Alex Verdugo and Phil Ervin. Free agent slugger Josh Donaldson takes over at third while across the diamond, first sacker Christian Walker comes into his own as a run producer. Up the middle, Kolten Wong—acquired from San Antonio—and Elvis Andrus will flash the leather and their speed, while Jorge Polanco will shine with Wong at the top of the order as DH, and Andrus’ occasional sub. The platoon behind the plate of Josh Phegley–acquired end of last year from New Orleans –and rookie Carson Kelly, will provide the Knights with above-average run production for the position. Jose Peraza and Jeimar Candelario will be the regular bench jockeys and look for pitcher Michael Lorenzen to get a turn or two in the outfield. Rotation: One thing you don’t need HAL to tell you is

that this is the deepest and most talented staff in the league. And the league will find out soon enough just how deep. The Knights will open the season leading with Jack Flaherty, followed by Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Gio Gonzalez—shadowed by Brad Peacock, Steve can explain—and free agent Andrew Cashner. Though some decent arms are there—especially Flaherty’s—you might wonder why all the hype? Well, by June, Frankie Montas will have served his suspension and Brandon Woodruff will have spent enough time on the farm, and both will move into slots in the rotation behind Flaherty, while Cashner and possibly Gonzalez take on lesser roles. It’s a bit of a bait and switch, and Knight’s opponents will certainly be the victims. Bullpen: A solid unit led by the King of all Closers, Kirby Yates. Which should suit the Knights just fine. This pen is loaded with live arms and microscopic WHIPS. Fronting Yates will be Emilio Pagan and Aaron Bummer, who will certainly not be that for Knights’ fans. Casey Sadler, Craig Stammen and outfield-wanna-be Michael Lorenzen will all excel when handed the baseball. Ryan Buchter is the left-handed specialist—hey, after Bummer, he’s the only other lefty—on a team that doesn’t need one, and Brad Peacock can also start a few games waiting for Montas and Woodruff, and will also shine as Gio’s designated right-handed doppelganger. Way to turn that lineup around, boys. A sound club, and much better than HAL thinks. HAL: 1st Place; #6 Overall

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For the record, HAL picked this club to finish fifth last year and they won the division. (I wisely picked them for fourth, thank you very much). While HAL now has visions of Angels rising to a third, place finish, I got a feeling that they are talented enough to be the runner-up to Seattle, albeit at a safe, safe distance. Lineup: HAL is not kind in rating the Angels’ offense, but with both Judge and Ohtani missing over a third of the season you can understand why. Though not the only power source in LA, Judge is the purest and most productive, and Ohtani is not too far behind him, and the Angels will suffer when they are not in the lineup. That said, there are still a couple weapons on hand. Randall Grichuk (CF) may ultimately lead the team in homeruns, given that he will get more plate appearances. Second baseman Rougned Odor will also provide some pop, though neither will hit for average or get on base enough. The same could be said for the all-or-nothing bats of Jay Bruce and Jake Bauers—who will shuttle between left and first—and third baseman Derek Dietrich, who will endure his worst season offensively. Ona more positive note, Leury Garcia will add a little spark and speed wherever he plays and whether he is slotted near the top or bottom of the order. Willy Adames will finally get the chance to start everyday at short—with a little help from the speedy Jon Berti—Adam Engel (CF) will finally hit over .200, and Miguel Cabrera will show signs of life after a couple of seasons in the shadows. The power will not be there, but he will provide a steady stick. A trio of catchers—Alex Avila, Jason Castro and Jose Trevino, will combine to make one

fair one. HAL still may be right listing them at #27. Rotation: On the other hand, the staff just misses a top ten mention and in a division that is not full of bruising lineups, may be what keeps the Angels ahead of the rest of the pack in the Pacific. Mike Clevinger is the undisputed ace, but—like Judge and Ohtani—could be missing for a third of his starts. But free agent Zack Wheeler, Steve Matz and Marco Gonzales are all better than average starters and will give the Angels at least three dependable arms. Adrian Houser will earn a spot in the rotation and at times will be the next best thing to Clevinger. Wilmer Font will also be ready to start whenever needed, though as more of an opener than an inning-eater. The rotation is the A’s biggest asset. Bullpen: And even in a down year for Jeremy Jeffress, the bullpen is not a lost cause by any stretch. Free agent Will Smith inherits the closer role and will miss bats and end threats with regularity. Tony Watson and Yoan Lopez will be the duo most often tasked to navigate the game in his direction. Luis Perdomo and Wilmer Font will haunt the middle innings. Adrian Houser will be used at times in long relief. Jeremy Jeffress will run hot and cold in the situations that he is given to solve. Rafael Montero will be the first called from the farm when a fresh arm is needed. A team in transition, I think. The Angels need to shed some age at the end of the season and gear up for when their next window opens. HAL: 3rd Place; #20 Overall

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PA C I F I C D I V I S I O N — 3 R D

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So, what happens when half of your team opts out for free agency? You hit that market and hope for the best, which is what the Seals have done. This isn’t the team that Steve Jost had in mind at the end of last season, but it is good enough to rise to third place and with luck, lay the foundation for 2021, when a lot of that money spent comes off the table. Lineup: To HAL , it’s just another lack-luster offense. I see it as a splendid supporting cast in search of a leading man or two. Mike Moustakas (3B) and Eric Thames (RF) should be protecting Josh Donaldson and Marcel Ozuna. Instead, they are going to be called upon to be the big guns in a Seals’ lineup short on star power. Setting the table for them will be shortstop Jean Segura and Dexter Fowler (RF), though ex p ec t s ec ond baseman Yolmer Sanchez to get some swings at the top of the order against most lefthanders. Depending on the day, protecting them will fall to starting catcher James McCann and a trio of veterans—centerfielder Ian Desmond, first baseman Todd Frazier and DH Daniel Murphy. Rookie Michael Chavis will share time with Frazier at first and will show some of his potential as a major run producer for the Seals in the seasons ahead. Raimel Tapia will get significant playing time in left but will not make nearly the impression. Back-up catcher Jacob Stallings, corner infielder Jake Lamb and outfielder Steve Duggar will be the primary reserves. Outfielder Trent Grisham may make his debut this season. Like Chavis, he could play a major role on the Seals team that Steve does have in mind. Rotation: What they lack in talent, they will make up for in effort. Masahiro Tanaka—who came over from

New Orleans in November—will be the engine that pulls this train. I hesitate to call him the ace of the staff—he’s not an efficient pitcher—but he will hang around and win games through sheer force of will. So, even if he isn’t the ace, he’s still the guy that should get the ball for the big games. Lining up behind Tanaka are veterans Dylan Bundy, Kyle Gibson—a free agent out of Oklahoma City—and Michael Wacha— who came over from Salt Lake City for Brett Gardner. Not as talented as Tanaka, but they do have similar temperament and tenacity. Pablo Lopez is the number 5 and will be a better pitcher than his high ERA might indicate. Bullpen: Though their closer—Raisel Iglesias—may appear a little rough around the edges at times, the bullpen is actually the Seals’ strength. Talented rookies Colin Poche and Tony Gonsolin—the occasional sixth starter—will join veterans Rowan Wick, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Morgan and Hector Rondon to form a pen that will not yield bae runners willingly, or as opponents will discover, easily. Wick and Morgan will be particularly stingy in their roles setting up Iglesias, who in spite of what I said will still get the job done. To a man, the Seals’ relievers are the perfect complement to the grit of the rotation. Like the Angels, this is a team in transition, and no matter what this year brings, it will also set the Seals up for what they hope is a big year in their new home by the Bay. HAL: 2nd Place (WC); #7 Overall

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PA C I F I C D I V I S I O N — 4 T H

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You know, HAL thinks that the ‘Lemurs are capable of not only finishing second, but in their current configuration, snagging one of the wild card berths. HAL places that faith in raw pitching data, ranking the staff at a lofty #3. While there are some good arms in Lemurland, there are far from enough of the starting variety. And, that will be all she wrote this year. Lineup: HAL does not rank the lineup in the top ten, but don’t be fooled. Though they lack power up and down the lineup, the ‘Lemurs can nickel and dime you to death. Of course, the one exception to that lack of power is one of the game’s best power hitters, corner-outfielder Christian Yelich. Though he may miss some time due to injury, he could put up a season’s worth of numbers in a shorter span than most mortals. The other major runs producers look to be first baseman Hunter Dozier and catcher-DH Wilson Ramos, who arrived from Jacksonville via trade. And here’s where the nickel and diming begins, as the Lemurs will get contributions from just about everyone on the roster. Two key players in that mix are centerfielder Victor Robles—a fourth outfielder no longer—and Hanser Alberto—who will do nothing but hit—and especially lefties—all season long wherever he is placed in the infield or batting order. An array of part-time and platoon players will—individually and collectively—put up solid numbers. Included in that number are Mitch Haniger (RF), Chris Taylor—the man of many positions—Ian Happ, Harold Castro and Aledmys Diaz—also men of many positions—and outfielder Adam Duvall. In short, the runs will come from

everywhere at any given time. Nickel and dime. Rotation: OK. I’ll give HAL Sonny Gray. And, rookie Zac Gallen is also very, very, very good, but he will not do more than half of this season. And German Dominguez might be better than his splits indicate. But, the Lemurs will not get by with two and a half men. (More like two and a quarter). Drew Smyly arrived just before opening day to fill in at #4 and will yield homeruns faster than Chris Yelich can produce them. Chris Stratton will be even worse as the first option at #5 and his relief—Brock Burke— will be worse still. Jose Urquidy will be more than decent, but if used in more than small doses, will lose that effectiveness. This will be the crucible. Bullpen: Ken Giles finally comes into his own as the Lemurs’ closer, and not a moment too soon. The hard-throwing righty will keep batters guessing, missing and most importantly, off base, as he locks down what management hopes is a tidy sum of ‘Lemur victories. And—a bit of good news—the pieces deployed ahead of him are quite good. Mychal Givens, Nick Goody and Zack Little will hold the line when asked or at least keep it respectable when not. Heath Hembree and rookie Genesis Cabrera complete the roster. The veteran will perform well in numerous situations and the rookie will be able to start on occasion. That’s a real plus. The Lemurs truly will go as far as the pitching takes them. HAL: 2nd Place (WC); #7Overall

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The Sharks reaped a bumper crop of rookies in the draft, though their full impact will not be felt until next year. Not to worry. The season will still be deemed a huge success if the net result is a few more high picks in 2021. This year’s squad should grant San Francisco fans that wish. Lineup: Giancarlo Stanton is pretty much a wash and Gavin Lux is a year away. Still, as long as the placeholders don’t spoil the view, there are some young bats arriving who will fun to watch. The most hyped is the Shark’s top pick, outfielder Eloy Jimenez, an instant threat to lead the team in homeruns and RBIs. Joining him in the outfield will be rookies Nick Senzel and Mike Tauchman. You can almost imagine where this could go, but veterans Curtis Granderson, Billy Hamilton and Tony Kemp will still get enough at bats to make sure it doesn’t this year. Around the horn in pre-Lux San Francisco, free agents Justin Smoak (1B) and Didi Gregorius (SS) will team up with veteran Kike Hernandez (2B); the third base rotation of Ronny Rodriguez and Hernan Perez; and ,rookie first sacker Nate Lowe, to create the Shark’s transitional infield. Behind the plate, Jeff Mathis and rookie Zac Collins will catch nearly every ball that is pitched to them, though if they combine for more than five homeruns and twenty ribbies, ownership will call that a bargain. (Just keep repeating, fans: It’s all about next year. It’s all about next year). Rotation: That’s also going to be the mantra where the pitching staff is concerned, only on steroids—if only there was a way to enhance performance—as the Sharks have taken a page from the Aguilas

Doradas’ playbook. (Did I mention that HAL ranks the Sharks at #30 in both batting and pitching?) The biggest problem with the rotation is that the Sharks don’t really have one. Jordan Zimmermann is the default #1 of the staff and that is only because he will be the only one with a legitimate shot of logging over 100 innings. The most effective— comparatively speaking—is Nathan Eovaldi, but he will spend more time on the IL than on the mound. Ross Detwiler, Jeff Hoffman, and—dare I say it— Edwin Jackson—whose ERA will get dangerously close to 10— will likely round out the rotation that starts the season. The worst news, or the best news, depending on your perspective, is that Jesus Luzardo has arrived via the draft and will make his first start next year, when he will be joined by a healthy Sean Manaea and next season’s top pick or two. The Sharks will get there. Eventually. Bullpen: We’ve seen this movie in the rotation. Actually, Jordan Hicks is going to be a lockdown closer—in those rare save opportunities he is afforded—and Sean Newcomb and Sam Gaviglio will be highly effective in their roles. However, Fernando Rodney will also be out there warming up alongside the likes of David Hernandez, Kyle Barraclough and the guy who used to be Jeurys Familia, so Sharks’ fans can be reassured that nothing too good will last for too long. Until, that is, next year. HAL: 5th Place; #30 Overall

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I D O N ’ T C A R E A B O U T M Y F A N TA S Y T E A M A N Y M O R E You’re the team to beat. A few things just have to go your way, the usual luck with injuries… and you’re set. Or at least you’ll be

streaks. A bad line on July 1 can still look decent with a strong second half. He won’t be under .200 all year. A couple more

If only you’d admitted it sooner, you could have set yourself up for next season, but no, you had to fool yourself into thinking you had a

competitive. You’ll be in it until the end. Someone has a bad April. Someone gets hurt. Your pitchers give up runs they shouldn’t be giving

teams pack it in, and you’re the first one with those trade offers sent. You’re going to surprise your league-mates. They think you’re out of it, but you’re just

chance. You find one buyer left, you dump some players for a fraction of their worth, just to do something. And now what’s the point? You’re still in

up. But it’s early. Leagues are won and lost by the moves that get made, the players that are given up on too early. The panicked trades. They’ll turn it around. April bleeds into May and you’re still okay. You’re within fighting distance. A good couple of weeks. The right guy off the waiver wire.

getting warmed up.

May turns into June and a couple of teams are already folding. They never had a chance. They were just kidding themselves. But you can scavenge and fill some holes for the inevitable turnaround. You make a couple of trades, sacrifice a little bit of the future. Not too much, because you want to hedge your bets. It hasn’t been a great start, maybe it’s not your year. But you’re going to give yourself a chance. And you’re still looking at those box scores every night, still waiting for the turnaround. The hot

the middle, but if you’re heading in any direction, it’s down. Why do The All-Star Break comes and you bother? Is it even worth doing goes, and, sure, you’re still in the this again next season? All the time middle of the pack, but a couple spent, the mental energy — why? good weeks and you’re right It’s a fake team, it doesn’t matter, back in it. Another shrewd trade, you don’t even win anything. Box and there’s some life in those scores? Whatever. They’re lucky slumping bats…. You’re check- you even check who’s still on the ing the box scores, maybe not all DL, and set your lineups. You of them, not every night, but missed a deadline? Who cares? you’ll know if something’s hapYou can’t imagine ever being interpening, you’ll feel it. ested in this nonsense again. It’s August, and you’re just going to give it a couple more weeks. After all, you’ve missed the boat on getting any value for your guys — everyone’s already divid-

Until November. When you look

ed into buyers and sellers. Except for you, in the middle, buying just enough to keep pace, but that’s really all you’ve done. Keep pace. And still you’re far behind. A bad week, and it hits you all at once. You’ve been kidding yourself. It’s not your year.

ket and a good draft… who knows? You start prepping, and there’s real hope. Optimism. You’re confident. You’re the team to beat. And it all starts again….

back at your team and realize there are some solid enough keepers there… and maybe… with a couple of good buys on the free agent mar-

- Jeremy Blachman August 20, 2013