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MORS President: The End of the Long Peace? Flipbook PDF
Author: David Saranchak PHALANX, Winter 2021
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MORS PRESIDENT
David Saranchak
President, Military Operations Research Society
The End of the Long Peace?
T
he publication of this Phalanx edition will occur over the 80th anniversary of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by the Imperial Japanese Navy Air Service. The very next day, Congress declared war against Japan, officially joining the United Kingdom and other countries that had been at war for more than two years at that point. Over the course of six years of war, it is estimated that more than 70 million people— both combatants and civilians— died as a direct result of wartime events. Over the 24-hour period of D-Day, there were more than 12,000 military causalities. In the Pacific Theater, America witnessed about 12,000 deaths over 80 days in Okinawa alone. Since World War II, the world has observed an unprecedented period of growth, prosperity, and
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PHALANX – WINTER 2021
relative peace, the longest, in fact, since the “Pax Romana” of the Roman Empire, which lasted roughly 200 years. The post-WWII time period is often referred to as the “Long Peace” (first defined in 1989 by John Gaddis) or the “Pax Americana.” In contrast to the WWII numbers above, the war in Afghanistan has observed about 2,400 U.S. deaths over the 20-year war. The absence of war among the largest and most wealthy countries and vast technological improvements have resulted in the smallest ever likelihood that a person will die in traditional battle.
Evidence of cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns is growing, and both can assist in the destabilization of nations prior to any kinetic effects.
However, none of the means that our democratic way of life is not under threat and that we will never see a large-scale war again. Currently, Russia is amassing troops—some estimates indicate 175,000—along the Ukrainian border for a possible invasion.
In the defensive strategy of deterrence since WWII, the U.S. Government has recognized certain groups of disruptive technologies as being both critical to winning a war when necessary, but also to deterring, over a long period of time, an adversary from going to
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David Saranchak
President, Military Operations Research Society
war in the first place. Each of these innovative technologies required the contributions of operations research scientists from multiple countries, scientists from the respective governments, academic institutions, and industrial organizations. These vital relationships support the strategic Five-Eyes partnership that has continued and has grown with broader partners from NATO, the Nine-Eyes, and the Fourteen-Eyes. It is unknown if our adversaries have established similar multinational relationships aligned against Five-Eyes interests. However, individual authoritarian governments do have an advantage
in their efficiency of merging the scientific education and exploration from industry and academia within an overarching government structure. To compete, democratic governments must continue building relationships that streamline innovation while promoting values opposed to authoritarian principles. The Military Operations Research Society (MORS) community is a vibrant and active medium in which MORS members, sponsors, and other stakeholders can pursue this vision. For example, in this edition of the Phalanx, you will find articles on the “World Class Analyst,” the
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MORS PRESIDENT Women in MORS, and on upcoming events focused on education, professional development, and campaign analysis. You will also read the observations of our Air Force Sponsor, Mr. Rowayne A. Schatz Jr, Director for Studies, Analyses and Assessments, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, on the challenges operations researchers face in being the “true north” for the Service. It is an honor to serve as the MORS President. Thank you all of those that contribute to the MORS mission. Our democracy is safer and better off due to your commitment and sacrifices.