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COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS

AUGUST 2017

RANKING COFACE ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

Accelerated growth and rising household consumption

1 SUMMARY

2 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Adriatic and Balkan Region 4 METHODOLOGY 5 RANKING Adriatic/Balkan Top 50 Companies

E

conomic activity accelerated in the Adriatic/Balkan region last year. The strongest contribution came from internal demand, with household consumption standing out as the main driver of regional growth. Exceptions to this rule include Serbia, which suffered from a decrease in private consumption for the fourth year in a row due to a weak labour market. Although unemployment rates have declined, the region still has double-digit levels of the population out of work in a majority of its economies. The fifth edition of the Coface Adriatic/Balkan Top 50 ranking does not reflect the economic growth seen in the region (with an overall increase in turnover of only +0.3% to EUR 38.8 billion). Total net profits fell by -10.1% to EUR 1,139 billion. You therefore need to take a second look and dig deeper to see the economic upturn in this year’s ranking.

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Revenues in the “Minerals, chemicals, petroleum, plastics & pharma” sector fell by -9.3%. Since this sector includes the largest companies in the region, its volatility consequently influence the overall results. All other industries reported good growth rates. Consumption boosted the turnover of “Non specialised trade” (+11.9%). This sector is also responsible for a massive recruitment wave, with 9,057 out of a total of 9,446 new jobs created within the region’s 50 largest companies. Overall employment increased by 6.4%. Turbulence on the oil & gas market also led to a change in the region’s Top 3. Despite massive drops in turnover, the Slovenian and Croatian oil & gas giants defended their positions. Slovenia Petrol ended 2015 as the largest company in the region, followed by Croatian INA. Serbian NIS wasn’t so fortunate and was kicked off the podium by the Slovenian electricity company GEN-I. GEN-I reported another very successful year after adapting effectively to the challenging electricity market.

2

COFACE PUBLICATIONS RANKING

ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

Nice headline relating to economic outlook - main message of it Grzegorz SIELEWICZ Group Coface Economist based in Warsaw

1

COFACE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ADRIATIC & BALKAN REGION

Adriatic countries are small economies which are open to external trade, with most exports going to the region and to Eurozone countries. The latter group is anticipated to boost growth from 0.9% last year to 1.5% this year and is an important destination for Adriatic exports (e.g. Italy will nearly double its growth rate from 0.6% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2016). Nevertheless, the Eurozone recovery is still exposed to various risks, with confidence weak and uncertainty surrounding Brexit; as a consequence, it is not possible to guarantee a sustainable improvement in the economies that depend on economic activity in the Eurozone. Despite Adriatic willingness to trade on foreign markets, the ratio of economic openness remains low. The ratio of exports to GDP averages 37%, which is considerably lower than the ratios in other Central and Eastern European economies. The only exception is Slovenia, where exports account for three-quarters of GDP. As a result, domestic demand remains an important component of economic performance in the Balkan region. The strong and sustainable surge in household consumption is

constrained by high unemployment, especially in Kosovo (34%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (27.7%) and Macedonia (26.1%). Nevertheless, a rebound in private consumption recorded last year will extend into 2016. A mix of investments and net exports will also support GDP in most of the region’s economies. Apart from EU members Croatia and Slovenia, other Balkan countries do not benefit much from EU funds, although resources from other international donors are supporting investments quite well. Foreign investors are also taking a favourable approach to the region because they are assured that improvements are in progress. Economic activity in the Adriatic region will be solid in 2016. GDP growth with reach 3.0% in BosniaHerzegovina, 4.0% in Kosovo, 3.5% in Macedonia, 3.6% in Montenegro, 2.0% in Serbia and 1.6% in Slovenia. Slower Slovenian growth is mainly due to a drop in the volume of EU co-financed investments, while exports and household consumption will be the main growth drivers this year. Faster growth

COFACE PUBLICATIONS RANKING

3

ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

The Balkans’ integration into the European Union is going forward but closer links with the EU does not mean that businesses have not been suffering any more from a certain level of trade barriers. On the economic side good prospects of internal demand support solid growth rates with private consumption settled in as the main driver.

is like to return to Slovenia next year, with private consumption strengthening its position as a driver of growth.

Adriatic/Balkan region Country comparison 2016 - Key indicators Top 50 Net profit (mio. EUR)

Top 50 Turnover (mio. EUR)

Population (mio.)

SLOVENIA

18

16,015



75

32,735

A4

2.1

18.672



2.9

-0.5



9.0



1.0

CROATIA

16

11,403



464

52,160

B

4.3

10.162



1.6

-0.5



16.3



1.9

SERBIA

9



7,717



517

55,815

C

7.1

4.592



0.7



1.4



17.7



3.1

BOSNIA

5



2,129



-37

14,245

D

3.8

3.648



2.8



-1.0



27.7



1.1

MACEDONIA

2

1,569



120

2,653

C

2.1

3.954



3.7

-0.2



26.1



1.0

MONTENEGRO

-

C

0.6

5.780



4.1





17.6



0.4

-

-

GDP/ Capita (EUR)

GDP Growth (%)

Unemployment (%)

Country

-

Top 50 Employment

Country Risk Assessment

No. of companies

Inflation (%)

1.6

Labour force (mio.)

4

COFACE PUBLICATIONS RANKING

ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

Coface Adriatic / Balkan Top 50 Company Ranking 2016

2

METHODOLOGY

The Coface Adriatic/Balkan Top 50 ranking is a joint project between the Coface branch offices in Central Europe. This ranking covers the largest companies in the region – based on their turnover for the calendar year of 2015. The study includes Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. The largest companies in each of the above countries (turnover ≥ EUR 300 million) were identified, although financial service providers such as banks, insurance companies, leasing firms and brokers were excluded. In addition to revenues, the ranking of the Coface Adriatic/Balkan Top 50 companies includes other key corporate indicators, such as net profits and the number of employees. Turnover and profit were converted into EUR based on the exchange rate at the end of 2015. The data were taken from our Coface InfoIcon database and supplemented with external information as required. Companies which were invited to participate in the survey but refused to take part are not included in the final ranking.

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COFACE PUBLICATIONS PANORAMA

Turnover in million EUR 2016

Change in Turnover in %

Net Profit in million EUR 2015

Net Profit in million EUR 2016

Change in Net Profit in %

Employment 2015

Employment 2015

Change in Employment in %

Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987

63.8 363.8

5

HR PETROL

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

-

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Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5 -6.5

-370.6 50.7 -370.6 50.7 -370.6 -850.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -86.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5 3,114.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

Oil Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8

Oil

3,327.0

3,114.5

-6.5

-370.6

50.7

-120.4

20,156

20,987

63.8

Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil

3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0 3,327.0

3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5 3,114.5

-6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5 -6.5

-370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6 -370.6

50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 50.7

-120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4 -120.4

20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156 20,156

20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987 20,987

63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8

4 5 6

NEW NEW NEW NEW

7

NEW

-

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

-

21 NEW

-

22 23 24 25 26 27

NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

-

28 NEW

-

29 30 31 32 133 34 35 36

NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

-

37 NEW

-

38 39 40 41

NEW 44 NEW NEW NEW -

42 NEW

-

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

-

NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW

Company name

HR PETROL HR PETROL

Country

2

Position 2015

Turnover in million EUR 2015

3

NEW

Oil giants and utilities remained the top players in the Adriatic/Balkan region in 2016

Main sector

1 2

Change in Position

Position 2016

3

COFACE ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

5

ADRIATIC/BALKAN TOP 50 COMPANIES

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DISCLAIMER

This document reflects the opinion of Coface Central Europe on the date of publication and subject to the available information, and may be modified at any time. The information, analyses and opinions presented are drawn from multiple sources that were judged reliable and credible. However, Coface does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or representativeness of the data contained in this document. The information, analyses and opinions are provided for information only and should be used in conjunction with other information the reader might already possess. Coface is not bound by an obligation of results but by an obligation of means and shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred by the reader arising from the use of the information, analyses and opinions contained in this document. This document, and likewise, the analyses and opinions which are expressed are the sole property of Coface. The reader may consult or reproduce them for internal use only and subject to mentioning Coface as the source; the data may not be altered or modified in any way. The information may not be used, extracted or reproduced for public or commercial purposes without prior permission from Coface. The reader is asked to refer to the legal notices on the Coface website. Publisher: Coface Central Europe Holding AG, Marxergasse 4C, 1010 Vienna Contact: www.cofacecentraleurope.com, [email protected]

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