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UNDERSTANDING THE SIRE STATISTICS - Breeding Winners Flipbook PDF
UNDERSTANDING THE SIRE STATISTICS Historically, the racing industry has presented the Average Winning Distance (AWD) for
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UNDERSTANDING THE SIRE STATISTICS Historically, the racing industry has presented the Average Winning Distance (AWD) for each sire. Every winner produced by the sire is lumped together and then the average distance is calculated. Breeding Winners strives to better understand how foals by a sire win their races. We begin by separating the universe of races into eight Race Types. This is accomplished by asking these three questions: 1. Is this a maiden race or not (non-maiden race)? 2. Is this a dirt race or a turf race? 3. Is this race for younger (before May 1 of their third year) or older horses? Therefore the eight Race Types are: Race Type 1 Race Type 2 Race Type 3 Race Type 4 Race Type 5 Race Type 6 Race Type 7 Race Type 8
Non- maiden dirt race for older horses Maiden dirt race for older horses Maiden turf race for older horses Non- maiden turf race for older horses Maiden dirt race for younger horses Maiden turf race for younger horses Non- maiden turf race for younger horses Non- maiden dirt race for younger horses
RACE REPORTS All of the statistics on the Race Reports are based on the most recent three years of data. This timeframe is presented at the top of the page just under the Breeding Winners logo. This first row of data is shaded and gives the averages for the Race Type. The averages can be referenced on the ALL SIRES REPORT that summarizes all of the winners over the most recent three years. The Days column indicates the number of days since the entrants last race. The D/T column gives the dirt to turf ratio. The number of dirt winners produced by the sire divided by the number of turf winners. This is a quick way to determine if a horse is better suited for dirt or turf. The average is around 5.0. A number higher than the average indicates a preference for dirt, while a lower number, a preference for turf. The Race Freq gives the number of winners produced by the sire for this TYPE of race. For dirt races, only these winners will be used to calculate the distance and purse
percentages and the layoff factor as long as there have been at least six winners. For turf races, all turf winners are used to calculate the statistics. Total dirt or turf wins gives the total number of winners for the appropriate surface. This set of data is used to produce the statistics when the race frequency is less than six. If the total dirt or turf wins is also less than 6, then INSUFFCIENT SIRE DATA is indicated. If no winners are found in the database, then NO SIRE DATA is indicated. The distance column gives the percentage of the race frequency winners that came at the distance of today’s race. Race distances are broken down into these six categories: • • • • • •
Less than 6 furlongs Equal to 6 furlongs 6.5 to 7.5 furlongs 8 to 8.5 furlongs 9 to 10 furlongs Greater than 10 furlongs
The purse column gives the percentage of the race frequency winners that came at today’s purse level. Purse levels are broken into these six categories: • • • • • •
Less than or equal to $10,000 $11,000 to $20,000 $21,000 to $30,000 $31,000 to $40,000 $41,000 to $50,000 Greater than $50,000
These purse categories are used when the race is a claiming race (on the Race Report ‘C’ is indicated after the Race Type) to present the percentage of the sires winners, for the Race Type, in this purse range. When the race is a non-claiming race (NC) the percentage of winners at the purse level OR higher is presented. Therefore a Maiden Special Weight race with a purse of $32,000, we present the percentage of winners at $31,000 or greater. The layoff column gives a normalized factor, where the average is 100. A layoff factor of 50 would be half of the average while a layoff factor of 200 would be twice the average. The percentage of winners for the individual sire, in the appropriate layoff category, is compared to the average (presented on the ALL SIRES REPORT). A frequency distribution was used to determine how many winners came on 2 days rest, 3 days rest, 4 days rest…..60 days rest and finally greater than 60 days rest. The data suggested (significant jumps in the data) these six categories: • • •
Less than or equal to 6 days 7 to 22 days 23 to 36 days
• • •
37 to 60 days Greater than 60 days First Time Starters
The mud column gives the percentage of ALL the sire’s dirt winners that came on a wet track. The NFT column gives the percentage of ALL the sire’s turf winners that came on a nonfirm turf (good, soft, yielding). The MATurity column presents a ratio of non- maiden winners to maiden winners before May 1 st of their third year. In other words, to determine which sires produce foals that continue to win at a young age after breaking their maiden. The number of winners of Race Types 7 and 8 are summed and divided by the sum of the number of winners of Race Types 5 and 6. This number is then multiplied by 100 in order to present a whole number.